Market Overview of PUMPUSDC on 2025-11-14

Summary

• Price action shows a bearish reversal from a 15-minute high of $0.003729 to a low of $0.003519.
• Volume spiked in the early part of the session, confirming bearish sentiment.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, hinting at a possible rebound, while Bollinger Bands suggest tightening volatility.

Market Summary and Key Metrics

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at $0.00372 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.00375 and a low of $0.003519, and closed at $0.003613 on 2025-11-14 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was 904,433,966.0 and the total turnover amounted to $2,712,075. Price action suggests a bearish bias with signs of potential consolidation or a rebound.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart reveals a bearish reversal pattern with a strong downtrend from $0.003729 to $0.003519. A bearish engulfing pattern is evident in the first hours of the session, confirming a shift in sentiment. Later, a bullish correction emerged with a small hammer formation near $0.003519, suggesting buyers may be stepping in. The most recent candlestick shows a consolidation phase, with prices hovering near 61.8% Fibonacci support. Key resistance appears near $0.00365–$0.003675, while support is likely to be tested at $0.003565–$0.003580.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term moving averages (20/50) on the 15-minute chart are below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, 50/100/200-period MAs appear flat or slightly bearish, indicating a longer-term bearish trend. The MACD histogram has turned negative and remains below zero, signaling weakening momentum. The RSI has dipped into oversold territory (~33), suggesting a potential short-term rebound may be due.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly toward the end of the session, indicating a potential breakout. The price closed near the lower band at $0.003613, suggesting that volatility may be primed for an upward release. If a breakout occurs, traders may look to the $0.00365 level as a potential target. The recent tightening of the bands also suggests a period of consolidation before a directional move is likely.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was highest during the first few hours, confirming the bearish shift in sentiment. A notable volume spike occurred at $0.003562, coinciding with a small bullish reversal. Notional turnover aligns with price movement, showing no divergence. Traders should watch for volume expansion in the coming hours to confirm any new direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent swings on the 15-minute chart suggest key retracement levels at $0.003565 (38.2%) and $0.003637 (61.8%). The 61.8% level appears to act as a short-term support and a potential entry point for bulls. On the daily chart, the $0.003625–$0.00365 range remains a critical area for price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish signals, including the engulfing pattern and oversold RSI, a backtest could be constructed using the PUMPUSDC ticker. A practical approach would involve shorting at the close of a confirmed bearish engulfing candle and exiting based on a fixed stop-loss at 1.5% or a target at 5%. Holding periods could be limited to five days, or trades could be closed on the next bullish reversal signal. Alternatively, an event study could measure average returns over five days post-signal, capturing market reaction without executing trades. This analysis could be backtested from January 2022 to assess the robustness of the signal.