Market Overview for PUMPUSDC on 2025-10-11

• Price opened at $0.005056 and closed at $0.004093, with a 24-hour high of $0.005258 and low of $0.003001
• A massive 15-minute candle at 21:00 ET saw a 65% drop to $0.004567 from $0.005205, suggesting sharp bearish pressure
• Volatility surged after 19:00 ET with multiple large bearish swings and a key breakdown near $0.003900–$0.004031
• RSI and MACD show oversold conditions, but volume suggests bearish conviction remains
• Price remains below key Fibonacci retracement levels from the October 10 high

Price Action and Momentum

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at $0.005056 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.004093 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of $0.005258 and low of $0.003001. The total 24-hour trading volume was 1.48 billion USDC, and the notional turnover was approximately $6.18 million. The pair has seen a sharp bearish reversal, particularly after a massive bearish candle at 21:00 ET, which dropped 12.5% in a single 15-minute interval.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels appear near $0.003891, $0.003986, and $0.004090, while resistance is forming at $0.004130 and $0.004200. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.005205 and $0.004567, confirming a bearish pivot. A deep bearish reversal was observed after 19:00 ET, with a doji forming near $0.004031, indicating a potential short-term equilibrium.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. For daily charts, the 50- and 200-period moving averages are yet to be updated for the latest session, but prior trendlines suggest bearish momentum remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative mid-session and has remained below the signal line, supporting bearish momentum. RSI hit oversold territory below 30 after 01:00 ET, yet price continues to drift lower, suggesting weak bullish conviction. The divergence between RSI and price action hints at potential consolidation or a minor bounce, but bearish pressure appears to be the dominant force.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the sharp drop in the 21:00–22:00 ET window, pushing price well below the lower band. Since then, the bands have constricted, suggesting a potential for a breakout or consolidation. Price has remained near the lower band for most of the session, indicating bearish dominance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the 21:00–22:00 ET window, with a single 15-minute candle accounting for 152 million USDC in turnover. Despite a rebound in price after 08:00 ET, volume remains subdued, suggesting weak follow-through from bullish participants. The divergence between price and volume suggests further consolidation may occur before any meaningful reversal attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the high of $0.005258 at 19:30 ET to the low of $0.003001 at 21:45 ET, Fibonacci levels are forming key support at $0.003891 (38.2%), $0.004090 (50%), and $0.004294 (61.8%). A bounce from the 50% level could signal a short-term rebound, but a retest of the 38.2% level may be necessary before a bullish reversal is confirmed.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish reversal patterns, oversold RSI, and volume divergence, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short bias with a stop just above the 50% Fibonacci level ($0.004090) and a target near the 38.2% level ($0.003891). Trailing stops or fixed profit targets may be added to manage risk during volatile swings. Given the low liquidity observed in recent hours, tight stop-loss placement and position sizing are essential to avoid slippage and false breakouts.