Market Overview for PUMPUSDC on 2025-09-21

• Price dropped from $0.007481 to $0.006857, closing near the session low with bearish momentum.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory and MACD showed a bearish crossover, suggesting potential short-term exhaustion.
• Volatility spiked in early session, followed by a sharp contraction as price drifted lower with low volume.
• Bollinger Bands tightened toward the end of the session, signaling potential for a breakout or false move.
• Key support near $0.00702–$0.00708 appears robust, but a breakdown below could accelerate the decline further.

The PUMP.fun/USDC pair opened at $0.007242 on 2025-09-20 at 16:00 ET and closed at $0.006857 on 2025-09-21 at 16:00 ET. The 24-hour high reached $0.007481, while the low dropped to $0.006815. Total volume was 691,849,033.0 and turnover was approximately $4,867,108.51 (using close price for estimation). The price action reflected a sustained bearish bias with no significant rejections or reversals.

A notable breakdown occurred between 19:00 and 20:00 ET, where price fell through key psychological support levels and remained below them for the remainder of the session. A bearish divergence in RSI appeared in the final hour as price made a new low but RSI did not, hinting at potential short-term stabilization. Bollinger Bands tightened from 15:45 ET onward, suggesting a possible breakout or breakdown event in the near term.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period MA in the early afternoon, confirming a bearish shift in near-term momentum. The 50-period MA held as a dynamic resistance between $0.0073–$0.0074, while the 200-period MA on the daily chart remained above the session close, reinforcing the bearish bias. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around $0.00736–$0.00728 during the 16:30–17:15 ET window, and a long-legged doji emerged near $0.00712 at the session low, signaling indecision.

Fibonacci retracements for the 0.007481–0.006815 swing indicate key levels at 0.00716 (38.2%) and 0.00700 (61.8%). Price tested the 38.2% level multiple times in the final hours but failed to hold above it. A breakdown below 0.00700 could target 0.00670–0.00660.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and the tightening of Bollinger Bands, a potential strategy would be to enter short positions on a breakdown below the 61.8% Fibonacci level ($0.00700) with a stop just above the 38.2% level ($0.00716). A target of $0.00670 can be set based on the depth of the recent decline and the structure of the daily chart. The MACD crossover and bearish divergence in RSI provide confirmation for this approach. However, if price rebounds from $0.00700 and closes above $0.00716, a reevaluation would be necessary to avoid whipsaw losses.