Market Overview for PUMPUSDC on 2025-09-13

• PUMPUSDC rallied sharply in early ET hours, reaching a 24-hour high of $0.006561.
• Price consolidated in late ET hours, closing at $0.006433 with a high of $0.006561.
• Notional turnover surged to $377.2 million, driven by volume spikes after 02:15 and 05:45 ET.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions mid-day, but price failed to sustain gains into the evening.
• Bollinger Bands widened early, then narrowed in the final hours, indicating declining volatility.

The PUMP.fun/USDC pair opened at $0.005800 on 2025-09-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.006433 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.006561 and a low of $0.005797 during the 24-hour window. Total trading volume amounted to 324,705,859.0, with a notional turnover of $2,094,440,083.00. Price exhibited a strong upward bias in the early morning hours followed by a pullback in the afternoon, setting the stage for a volatile and momentum-driven session.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a classic bullish continuation pattern in the early morning, with a sharp break above a key resistance level near $0.006268. This was followed by a bearish reversal candle at $0.006561, suggesting exhaustion. Key support levels emerged at $0.006300 and $0.006150, both of which provided temporary floors during the afternoon. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the peak before consolidation set in, suggesting a potential near-term top formation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed above the price during the early morning, reinforcing the bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA started to diverge from the price after 10:00 ET, signaling a weakening trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears below the 200-period MA, a bearish sign, though the recent rally may have tested the 50-period level, which now acts as a potential short-term support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line early on, confirming bullish momentum, but diverged from price action in the afternoon as the trend reversed. RSI surged past 70, indicating overbought conditions, and eventually dropped below 50 by 20:00 ET. The RSI divergence suggests a weakening of the bullish trend and could foreshadow further consolidation or a pullback into support levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically between 02:15 and 05:45 ET, with the upper band reaching as high as $0.006561. The bands then began to contract, signaling a potential reversal or consolidation phase. Price remained within the bands throughout the day, with the 20-period moving average acting as a central reference. The narrowing of the bands may indicate a temporary pause before a new directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged above 20 million units on multiple occasions, with the largest spike occurring at 02:15 ET when $0.00652 was breached. Notional turnover also spiked at this time, confirming the bullish break. A divergence appeared between volume and price in the late afternoon as turnover dropped while price continued to fall. This suggests weakening conviction in the bearish move and could signal a short-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels were identified from the low of $0.005797 to the high of $0.006561. The 61.8% retracement level at $0.006207 offered strong resistance in the late morning and again during the afternoon. The 38.2% level at $0.006150 was tested and held as support, while the 23.6% level at $0.005964 also appeared to act as a minor floor. These levels may continue to influence near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves a dynamic mean reversion approach that triggers long positions when price crosses above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart and RSI dips below 30. Conversely, short positions are triggered when price crosses below the 20-period MA and RSI exceeds 70. The strategy incorporates a trailing stop loss based on the Bollinger Band width to manage risk during volatile phases.

This setup aligns with today’s price behavior, where the 20-period MA acted as a guide through the bullish and bearish phases. A long signal would have been triggered in the early morning, but as the RSI surged into overbought territory and the Bollinger Band width expanded, a trailing stop loss would have been engaged. A short signal was possible during the afternoon pullback, though diverging volume and RSI suggest caution. The strategy could benefit from tighter volatility filters during sharp breakouts to avoid false signals.