Market Overview: Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) – 2025-10-03

• PUMPUSDC traded in a range of $0.00683–$0.007356 with a 24-hour close near $0.0071.
• Bullish momentum stalled at $0.007356 while bearish pressure emerged below $0.0070.
• Volatility expanded in early ET with a 38.2% retracement level holding as support.
• High-volume candles suggest liquidity shifts and potential for a breakout.
• RSI indicates moderate oversold conditions, suggesting limited bearish momentum.

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at $0.006906 on 2025-10-02 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.007356 and a low of $0.00683, closing at $0.007101 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period reached 346,480,414.0 USDC, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $2,458,419.50 based on average price.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candles reveal a dynamic price action with a notable engulfing bullish pattern forming between $0.00691–$0.00703 in the early ET hours, followed by a bearish inside bar near $0.00701 in the late-night ET session. A key horizontal resistance level appears to be forming around $0.007356, where price attempted multiple times to break out but failed. Conversely, $0.0070 appears to be a strong support level, with the price bouncing multiple times from that area. A doji near $0.007059 at 23:45 ET suggested indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a crossover and subsequent convergence in the late ET hours, suggesting a shift in short-term momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA appears to be slightly bullish, but the 200-period MA shows a bearish bias, indicating a potential tug-of-war between short- and long-term sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the late ET period, indicating bearish momentum, while the signal line remained relatively flat, signaling a potential trend reversal. The RSI reached an overbought level of 68 during the early ET rally but dropped into a neutral to oversold range (around 38) by the end of the session. This suggests limited bearish momentum and a potential rebound in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

The price action showed a volatility expansion in the early ET hours, with price testing the upper Bollinger Band at $0.007356. By late ET, volatility began to contract, and the price hovered around the 20-period moving average. The middle Bollinger Band acted as a dynamic support/resistance level, with the price crossing it multiple times during the 24-hour period.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early ET hours during the bullish rally to $0.007356, with a notable $49.87M notional turnover during that hour. This suggests institutional or large-volume participation. However, in the late ET hours, volume dropped off, despite the price remaining in a tight range. A volume divergence appeared in the last four 15-minute candles as price made a new low at $0.00683, but volume failed to confirm the bearish move. This divergence could hint at a possible short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the swing high at $0.007356 and swing low at $0.00683 identified key levels: $0.00715 (38.2%), $0.00699 (50%), and $0.00684 (61.8%). The 50% retracement level at $0.00699 held as a support during the last four hours of the 24-hour period, indicating strong market interest around that level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a backtesting strategy based on the 15-minute MACD and 50-period moving average crossover, we could simulate a buy signal when the MACD crosses above the signal line and the price crosses above the 50-period MA. A sell signal would occur when the MACD crosses below the signal line and the price drops below the 50-period MA. Given the recent MACD divergence and the price retesting the 50-period MA, this strategy could have captured a short-term bullish move from $0.00690 to $0.007356. A backtest would also need to consider stop-loss placement at $0.00684 to manage risk during volatile swings.