Market Overview for Pump.fun/USDC

Summary
• Price opened at $0.004261 and closed at $0.004103, with a 24-hour high of $0.004387 and low of $0.004015.
• Strong bearish momentum was observed late in the session, with a significant volume spike at $0.004108.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions were reversed into oversold territory, hinting at potential consolidation.

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at $0.004261 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.004103 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.004387 and a low of $0.004015. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 1,624,834,655.0 and total turnover reached $6,889,960.95. The price action displayed a bearish bias with multiple bearish reversal candlestick patterns and a significant volume spike near the close.

Structure & Formations

Price found support at key levels such as $0.004141 and $0.004093, where multiple candles closed near these areas after sharp declines. A bearish engulfing pattern was evident around $0.004169, signaling a potential trend reversal. A doji at $0.004151 also suggests indecision, with buyers stepping in briefly before the price resumed its downward path.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price late in the session, forming a bearish death cross. Over the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages are both below the 200-period, indicating a long-term bearish bias. The price remains well below these key moving averages, reinforcing the bearish case for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative, confirming the bearish momentum with a significant negative divergence at the end of the session. RSI dropped sharply into oversold territory, closing near 25, suggesting the pair may consolidate or test lower levels in the near term. The combination of RSI and MACD indicates a high probability of a continuation of the bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Price action remained within the Bollinger Bands throughout the session but touched the lower band toward the end, suggesting a potential bounce. However, the close below the lower band indicates a bearish continuation is more likely. The bands were relatively wide, signaling high volatility, with the price trading at the lower end, indicating bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the last few hours of the session, particularly around $0.004108, confirming the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover mirrored the volume profile, with a significant increase during the final leg down. Divergence between price and turnover was not observed, suggesting the bearish move is being driven by strong conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.004387 to $0.004015, the 61.8% level at $0.004169 was a key area where the price found temporary support. The daily chart shows the 61.8% retracement level at $0.004151, which the price tested but failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed bearish momentum and overbought reversal suggest a potential backtest setup: entering short positions on RSI > 70 and exiting on a close below the 50-day SMA. A universe of one ticker (PUMPUSDC) can be tested with the 14-period RSI and the SMA-50 support rule. A stop-loss at the next higher swing high and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level could balance risk and reward. Using daily close data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 will provide a robust out-of-sample test of the hypothesis.