Market Overview for Pump.fun/USDC on 2025-11-13

Summary
• PUMPUSDC opened at $0.004151 and closed at $0.003914, with a 24-hour low of $0.003852.
• Price action showed a bearish shift after 19:00 ET, with a sharp drop below key support.
• Volume spiked during the selloff but failed to confirm a bullish rebound, suggesting bearish control.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show a contraction phase, hinting at a period of consolidation ahead.

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at $0.004151 and closed at $0.003914 on 2025-11-13. The 24-hour range was $0.004168 to $0.003852, with a total traded volume of $263,528,932.4 and turnover of 45,515,508 tokens. The pair appears to be consolidating after a bearish reversal, with key technical levels likely to define near-term direction.

On the 15-minute chart, PUMPUSDC formed several bearish engulfing patterns between 19:00 and 20:30 ET, particularly notable during the candle that closed at $0.003968 at 20:30 ET. This followed a bearish trend where price tested and fell below prior support levels at $0.003947 and $0.003906. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line mid-session, signaling a potential bearish bias. Over the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages suggest a neutral to bearish trend with no immediate bullish crossover.

Momentum indicators show mixed signals. The RSI hit an oversold level near 25 around 20:30 ET, which may imply a short-term bounce. However, the MACD line remained below the signal line throughout the session, with a bearish divergence forming after 21:00 ET. Price found support at $0.003937 and $0.003905, but both failed to hold. The Bollinger Bands were in a contraction phase early in the session, indicating a period of low volatility, but expanded as the bearish move continued, suggesting increased uncertainty.

Volume was unevenly distributed. The selloff from $0.0041 to $0.0039 was supported by high-volume candles, particularly between 19:00 and 20:30 ET, where volume averaged over $15M per candle. Turnover increased during the bearish shift but failed to confirm any strong bullish reversal. The price and volume action show a lack of conviction in the short-term upside, with bears retaining control. Fibonacci retracements indicate that the 61.8% level of the recent swing from $0.004158 to $0.003852 lies at $0.004010, which could serve as a potential resistance for the next 24 hours.

A short-term bounce could occur as RSI shows oversold conditions, but bearish control remains likely unless a strong reversal candle forms above $0.004010. Investors should monitor volume for confirmation of any bullish breakout, while keeping a risk-averse stance due to the bearish trend in key indicators.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy outlined aims to capitalize on MACD Golden Crosses by using historical Pump.fun/USDC price data to identify entries and evaluate performance. To proceed, the correct ticker symbol is critical, as it ensures accurate data retrieval for the MACD and signal line calculations. Assuming the correct symbol is known (e.g., PUMP-USDC or similar), the next steps involve downloading the 2022–2025 historical price data at 15-minute intervals. Using this data, the strategy will compute MACD values, identify Golden Crosses (when the MACD line crosses above the signal line), and simulate a buy at the open of the candle following the crossover. The backtest will assess the performance of each trade, including exit rules such as selling at a bearish cross or holding for a fixed period. This approach could help determine whether the strategy is viable in the PUMPUSDC market, considering its volatile and speculative nature.