Market Overview: PUMP.fun/USDC on 2025-09-25

• PUMPUSDC opened at $0.006058 and closed at $0.005174, down 14.5% with a 24-hour low of $0.005006.
• Volume hit 324.3 million, with a total turnover of $1.78 million—downside volatility accelerated in the late hours.
• A long bearish candle with wick and rejection at $0.005276 signaled possible support at $0.0052–$0.00515.
• RSI fell below 30 during the session, hinting at oversold conditions, though momentum remains bearish.
• Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility spiked, with price near the lower band suggesting a potential rebound.

Pump.fun/USDC (PUMPUSDC) opened at $0.006058 on 2025-09-24 at 16:00 ET and closed at $0.005174 by 12:00 ET the next day. The pair saw a 24-hour high of $0.006072 and a low of $0.005006. Total volume was 324.3 million USDC, with a notional turnover of $1.78 million. The price action over the past 24 hours reflects a steep bearish bias, with a 14.5% drop from open to close.

Structure and formations over the 15-minute chart revealed a clear breakdown from key resistance levels, particularly around $0.005276, where a long bearish candle with a wick suggested rejection. A possible support zone appears to be forming between $0.0052 and $0.00515, marked by a cluster of tight consolidation and rejection candles. Notable bearish patterns, such as hanging man and gravestone doji, occurred near $0.00516 and $0.00523, further reinforcing a weak price dynamic.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained below the price for most of the session, confirming the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed below the 200-period, forming a death cross. This reinforces a medium-term bearish outlook and may continue to act as a ceiling for any near-term rebounds. Momentum has clearly shifted toward the bear side.

MACD turned negative during the session, confirming a bearish bias. RSI crossed below 30 in the early morning hours, entering oversold territory, yet price continued to fall, suggesting weak conviction on the buy side. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the early hours, indicating rising volatility, and the price closed near the lower band, a potential indicator for a short-term bounce. However, this remains speculative unless buyers defend the $0.00515–$0.0052 range.

The price may find a temporary floor near $0.00515–$0.0052 in the next 24 hours, but a break below this would likely trigger further downward momentum. Investors should watch for volume spikes or reversal patterns in that range as potential early signs of a countertrend move. A sharp rebound is not likely unless there is a surge in buying volume or a catalyst beyond pure technical dynamics.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 24-hour high of $0.006072 to the low of $0.005006 placed key levels at 38.2% (~$0.005538) and 61.8% (~$0.005297). Price briefly tested 61.8% in the mid-night hours but failed to hold. On the 15-minute chart, retracements on the recent bear leg from $0.005276 to $0.005156 show 38.2% at ~$0.005232 and 61.8% at ~$0.005195—both levels have seen candlestick rejection or consolidation, suggesting these could act as potential short-term barriers.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price structure and volume behavior, a possible backtest strategy could be to short PUMPUSDC on a breakdown of the $0.005276 level, with a stop-loss placed above the recent 15-minute high of $0.005311. A target could be set at $0.00515–$0.00512, where tight consolidation and rejection candles formed. This approach would align with the bearish bias confirmed by moving averages, RSI, and volume expansion. A long entry on a bounce from $0.00515–$0.0052 may be considered with a small stop below $0.00512. This strategy relies on continuation of the current bear trend and assumes no external catalysts shift the momentum.