Market Overview for Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) - 2025-11-05

Summary• Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) closed lower at 0.014891 after a sharp intraday rebound.• Price action showed a volatile 4.3% range with volume peaking at 381.6 million at 20:30 ET.• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions emerged near the 24-hour high.• Bollinger Bands expanded as price tested the upper band, signaling increased volatility.• A bullish reversal pattern formed in the final hours, suggesting potential short-term support.

Market Action

Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) opened at 0.014481 on 2025-11-04 at 17:00 ET and closed at 0.014891 the following day. The 24-hour period saw the pair trade as low as 0.013252 and as high as 0.015446. The price surged 3.6% from its intraday low at 20:30 ET. Total volume for the session was 2.12 billion, with a notional turnover of $31.25 million. The final 24 hours saw significant volatility and a potential bullish reversal at the close.

Structure & Formations

Price action in the 15-minute chart showed a sharp bearish trend starting at 17:00 ET, with a key low at 0.013252. This was followed by a strong rebound, particularly after 21:00 ET. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the final hours of the session, with the close above the 0.0148 mark. Key support levels appear to be in the 0.0144–0.0146 range, while resistance is likely near the 0.0150–0.0152 zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish crossover for most of the session, but the 20-period line crossed above the 50-period line at 03:00 ET, indicating a short-term bullish shift. On the daily chart, the 50-period line was below the 100- and 200-period lines, maintaining a bearish bias. The crossover in the 15-minute chart may suggest a temporary re-entry of buyers.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a positive cross-over at 03:00 ET, aligning with the sharp price rebound. The RSI moved into overbought territory in the last 3 hours, peaking at 68 before a modest pullback. These indicators suggest increasing momentum in the short term, but the RSI’s overbought level warns of potential resistance ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded as price moved toward the upper band during the late-night rebound, particularly between 03:00 and 05:00 ET. Price closed near the upper band, indicating heightened volatility and a strong short-term bullish move. This could suggest that buyers may continue to push higher in the near term, but the upper band may act as a key resistance.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 381.6 million at 20:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp rebound from 0.013252. This was followed by a steady decline in volume as the price moved higher, suggesting some consolidation. Notional turnover also spiked at that time. The volume pattern implies that while the rebound was strong, it may not be sustainable without further volume support.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels based on the key 0.013252–0.015446 swing showed the 0.618 level at 0.014954, very close to the closing price. The 0.382 and 0.5 levels (0.01436 and 0.01435, respectively) were tested multiple times during the session. The closing price near the 0.618 level suggests buyers are showing strength, and the price may consolidate or retest these levels in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest aimed to identify “resistance–breakout” events for USDTUSD by scanning for closes equal to or above the 20-day high. However, the job failed due to the stable-coin nature of USDT, which rarely exceeds rolling highs. This highlights the importance of selecting assets with sufficient price volatility. For PENGUUSDT, the resistance-breakout concept is more applicable, and future backtests could use a +0.05% tolerance (Close ≥ 20-day-HHV × 1.0005) to allow for more frequent event detection. Alternative strategies, such as long-only trends or mean reversion, may be more suitable for this asset.