Market Overview for Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT): 2025-11-01

• Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) traded in a narrow range, with bearish momentum evident in late-day declines.
• A key support level around 0.0180–0.0181 held, while resistance at 0.0183–0.0184 remains contested.
• High volume and increased volatility suggest accumulation or distribution activity around key levels.
• RSI and MACD show weakening bullish momentum, consistent with a consolidation or bearish reversal setup.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the session, reflecting heightened short-term uncertainty.

Opening Summary

Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) opened at 0.018634 (12:00 ET − 1), reached a high of 0.018829, a low of 0.017723, and closed at 0.018208 (12:00 ET). Total 24-hour volume was 155,755,703.7 and total turnover amounted to approximately $2,854,204. Price action reflected a volatile session with a late-day pullback and consolidation near key Fibonacci and moving average levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern around 19:00–20:00 ET, confirming a short-term top. Later in the session, a bullish harami pattern near 0.0181 suggested cautious optimism. The key support zone at 0.0180–0.0181 held twice, most recently during a 0.018061–0.018254 correction. Resistance at 0.0183–0.0184 remains contested, with the 20-period moving average acting as a dynamic ceiling for most of the session.

Moving Averages

The 20-period (15-min) moving average hovered around 0.0183 during the first half of the session, but drifted lower in line with the bearish bias. The 50-period moving average crossed below it early in the day, reinforcing the bearish signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at 0.01835, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent swing high at 0.018829.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory after 19:00 ET, with a bearish divergence forming as price hit new lows while the RSI showed weakening momentum. RSI bottomed at ~35 early in the morning, suggesting oversold conditions, but failed to generate a strong bounce. A retest of the 35–40 level is likely if the consolidation fails to produce a clear breakout.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded through the session, with the Bollinger Band width peaking at ~1.8% during the 19:00–20:00 ET bearish reversal. Price closed just below the 20-period Bollinger Band midpoint, indicating a bearish drift. A closing above the upper band would signal bullish conviction, while a break below the lower band would validate the bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 17:00–18:00 ET and 19:00–20:00 ET hours, with the 17:00–18:00 ET session showing the largest single candle turnover. A divergence appeared between volume and price during the 04:00–06:00 ET consolidation, indicating distribution activity. The 2025-11-01 session ended with volume skewed bearish, with the final 3 hours seeing increased volume on declining price.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci levels from the 0.017854 to 0.018829 swing included the 61.8% at 0.018429 and 38.2% at 0.018223. Price bounced off the 38.2% level twice, suggesting a potential short-term support. The 61.8% level failed to hold during the 19:00–20:00 ET reversal and now acts as a key resistance. A break below 0.0180 could target the next Fibonacci level at 0.017753 over the coming hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

To create a rules-based backtesting framework for PENGUUSDT, the pivot-high method offers a structured approach for identifying dynamic resistance levels. Using a N=2 setup (a candle must be higher than the two before and after it to qualify as a pivot high) aligns well with the 15-minute timeframe’s volatility and rapid reversals. After a bearish engulfing pattern generates a short-entry signal, the trade would close at the first pivot high formed after entry. This method avoids ambiguity and ensures position closure at key resistance levels, which were clearly identifiable in the 19:00–20:00 ET session. Given the high volume and price action during this window, a backtest could validate whether a pivot-high-based strategy would have captured the bearish momentum effectively.