Market Overview for Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT): 2025-09-16 12:00 ET – 2025-09-17 12:00 ET

• Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) traded lower by -0.34% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.03385.
• A key resistance at 0.03430–0.03445 was tested multiple times but failed to hold.
• Volatility remained compressed in late hours, with Bollinger Bands narrowing.
• RSI suggests mild oversold conditions at 29, but momentum remains weak.
• Notional turnover reached $92.7 million, with volume concentrated in afternoon trading.

Pudgy Penguins/Tether (PENGUUSDT) opened the 24-hour period at $0.03376 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET and closed at $0.03385 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.034616 and a low of $0.033417. Total volume for the period was 392,215,310.0 units, and notional turnover reached approximately $92.7 million, based on average price and volume.

Structure & Formations

Over the 24-hour period, PENGUUSDT showed a bearish bias with price consolidating below key resistance at $0.03430–0.03445. A series of doji and small-bodied candles in the late hours (after 18:00 ET) suggested indecision and potential for a near-term bounce. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 17:15 ET, signaling short-term weakness, but it was later met with rejection as buyers re-entered during the 20:00–04:00 ET window.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, maintaining a bearish bias. Price has remained below both lines, indicating a continuation of the bearish tone. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat at approximately $0.03435, forming a key psychological level that could see renewed testing in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative for most of the period, with a slight narrowing as the 20:00–04:00 ET consolidation reduced bearish momentum. RSI dipped to 29 early in the morning of 2025-09-17, signaling oversold conditions but failed to trigger a sustained rebound. The indicator appears to be in a corrective phase, with no clear divergence observed between price and momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted significantly during the late hours (02:00–05:00 ET), signaling a potential for a breakout or breakdown. Price remained within the band for most of the period, but the narrowing suggests reduced volatility and a high probability of a directional move in the near term. The midline of the band currently sits at $0.03390, with the lower band near $0.03350, a potential support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated in the 16:00–19:00 ET window, coinciding with the key bearish move from $0.03445 to $0.03415. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, indicating active bearish participation. In contrast, volume declined sharply after 20:00 ET, which could point to a lack of follow-through in the bearish move and a possible reversal setup.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high of $0.034616 and low of $0.033417, the 38.2% level sits at $0.03385 (current close), and the 61.8% level at $0.03362. These levels could serve as critical points for near-term support. If the price breaks below the 61.8% retracement, it could target $0.03330 next.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this market could involve entering a short position when price closes below the 20-period moving average with a bearish engulfing pattern, and exiting on a close above the 50-period MA or on a breakout of the upper Bollinger Band. Given the current context, a long bias could be taken on a close above $0.03430 with a bullish reversal pattern, using the 61.8% Fibonacci level as a stop-loss. The low volatility and indecisive candlestick formations suggest a high probability of a breakout or breakdown in the near term, making this a viable approach for directional plays.