Market Overview for PROVETRY on 2025-10-11

• Price dropped 27% from $30.76 to $25.49 before rallying to close near $30.44.
• Key support at $27.36 and resistance at $30.80 identified via swing lows and highs.
• Volatility spiked during 21:00–22:00 ET with 75,000+ volume and 1.6M turnover.
• RSI bottomed at 20 (oversold) and MACD crossed back into bullish territory.
• Final 2-hour rally shows strong buying pressure but faces 20-period MA at $30.65.

PROVETRY opened at $30.57 on 2025-10-10 and dropped to a low of $25.49, then rallied to close at $30.44 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 1,079,673.2, with a notional turnover of $28.7M, reflecting high volatility and price recovery in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a strong bullish reversal pattern after hitting a 24-hour low of $25.49 on 21:15 ET. A sharp rebound off the $27.36 level (identified as a key support) led to a 5-hour rally toward $30.44, forming a short-term “V-bottom.” A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the top of the $30.80–$30.76 range, suggesting temporary resistance. A long upper shadow at the 23:30–23:45 ET candles signals early bearish pressure before the rally resumed.

Moving Averages and MACD/RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was at $30.65, slightly above the close of $30.44, suggesting the rally may not have fully closed above key momentum. The 50-period MA sat at $29.75, indicating a potential zone for buyers. The MACD turned positive in the final 4.5 hours, crossing above zero at 09:45 ET and showing a bullish divergence with price. RSI bottomed at 20 during the low and has since rebounded into the 50–60 range, signaling balanced momentum.

The daily MA (50-period) is at $29.20, and the 200-period MA is at $27.80, both suggesting the rally is above long-term averages, a positive sign for continuation.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff from $30.57 to $25.49, pushing the price to the lower Bollinger Band by 1.5σ. The rebound closed back within the band, with the midline at $28.90 acting as a temporary floor. The upper band currently sits at $31.60, a potential short-term ceiling.

Fibonacci retracement levels showed strong relevance during the recovery. The price briefly touched 78.6% retracement at $30.35 before settling near $30.44, suggesting a possible consolidation at 61.8% at $29.80 or 78.6% at $30.35 in the near term.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, with over 77,251.6 units traded at $25.49. In contrast, the final 4-hour rally saw 138,893.6 units traded and a notional turnover of $4.3M, showing strong conviction in the upward move. The volume/price divergence during the initial decline was bearish, but the final rally showed no such signs, indicating institutional or large-cap buyer entry.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent action aligns with a potential long bias strategy that triggers on a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a MACD crossover above zero with RSI above 40. A backtest could use this logic: enter long on a close above the 20-period MA after a 20-period MA crossover and confirm with a RSI above 50. Stops could be placed just below the most recent swing low at $29.05, with targets at $30.95 (20-period MA + 1.5x ATR). This would capture the 21:00–12:00 ET rally and test its predictive power on prior 15-minute data.