Market Overview: NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) - Volatility, Divergences, and Key Levels

• NEARJPY opened at 441.5, reached 494.1, and closed at 466.9 amid a volatile 24-hour swing.
• Price formed a bearish reversal pattern near 494.1 and found support at 465.0 during pullbacks.
• Volume spiked during key price pivots, especially in the early hours of 2025-09-19.
• RSI overbought readings above 70 were followed by sharp corrections, signaling bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed a notable expansion after the 494.1 high, indicating increased volatility.

The NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) pair opened at 441.5 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and reached a peak of 494.1 before closing at 466.9 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 132,279.6 units, with a notional turnover of around 60,718,762.1 JPY. The price action was marked by sharp reversals, divergences, and high volatility, particularly following a key high at 494.1.

Structure & Formations
NEARJPY formed a distinct bearish reversal pattern near the high of 494.1, with the price falling sharply to 479.9 and then consolidating in a tight range around 480.0–483.0. The price subsequently tested a key support level at 465.0 twice, with the second test failing to break below, triggering a minor bounce. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged near the 465.0 level, but its follow-through was weak. A doji at 466.7–466.9 during the final candle signals indecision and potential consolidation ahead.

Moving Averages
On the 15-minute chart, the price moved above the 50-period moving average after the 465.0 support hold, but the 20-period line remains bearish. On the daily chart, the 50-period line is still above the 200-period line, suggesting longer-term strength, although the 100-period line has started to converge, indicating potential consolidation.

MACD & RSI
The MACD line crossed into positive territory briefly following the 465.0 support test but quickly diverged from the price, signaling weakening bullish momentum. RSI peaked above 70 during the 494.1 high and dropped sharply to 48 by the end of the day, indicating overbought conditions followed by a correction. NEARJPY appears to be in a neutral to slightly bearish momentum phase.

Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands expanded significantly following the high at 494.1, indicating a period of heightened volatility. Price subsequently traded within the bands but approached the lower band on several occasions, especially after the 479.9 swing low. This suggests a potential for mean reversion and volatility contraction if the price stabilizes around the middle band.

Volume & Turnover
Volume spiked during key price pivots, particularly between 09:15 and 09:30 ET, when the price rose from 485.0 to 491.2, and again during the sharp decline from 491.2 to 479.9. Notional turnover also surged during these periods, confirming the price movements. However, a divergence occurred during the 00:00–01:00 ET period, when the price fell from 482.3 to 477.6, but turnover did not follow the same pattern, signaling potential for a false break or hesitation in the market.

Fibonacci Retracements
Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the swing high of 494.1 and the low at 465.0, the 38.2% level is at ~481.8, the 50% at ~479.6, and the 61.8% at ~477.3. These levels will be key to watch as the price may find temporary support or resistance. On the 15-minute chart, the 480.0–483.0 range aligns with these levels and could serve as a pivot area for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential strategy for NEARJPY could involve entering a short position on a confirmed break of the 465.0 support level with a stop loss above the 470.0 resistance. Given the recent divergence in volume and RSI behavior, this approach could be augmented with a RSI < 30 and a closing candle below the 20-period moving average as confirmation. A target for the short trade might be the next Fibonacci level at ~468.2–469.0, with a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:1.5. While this strategy aligns with recent bearish momentum, it must be combined with close attention to order flow and divergence signals to avoid false breakdowns.