Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY)

Summary
• NEARJPY opened at 403.6 and reached an intraday high of 455.1 before closing at 429.6, down 5.1% over 24 hours.
• Volume surged to 90,689.9 units, with the most liquidity concentrated during the late ET afternoon and early overnight hours.
• Key resistance near 430.0 was rejected twice, while support at 420.0 held briefly but later gave way.
• RSI hit overbought levels above 70 in the afternoon, followed by a sharp correction and oversold readings below 30.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the 17:30 ET surge and later a wide expansion, indicating a period of volatility.

Structure & Formations

NEARJPY traded in a broad range over 24 hours, with a bearish reversal forming around 17:30 ET as a large bearish candle confirmed rejection at the 430.0 level. A bullish engulfing pattern briefly emerged near 00:30 ET, but failed to sustain momentum. A key support zone formed between 415–420, and a strong bearish harami pattern appeared near 05:30 ET, confirming bearish sentiment. A doji at 03:15 ET indicated indecision at the 420.0 level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below price late in the session, indicating a bearish bias. The 50-period SMA hovered near 435.0, acting as initial resistance, while the 200-period SMA (daily) remained above 445.0, suggesting a medium-term bearish setup. Price tested the 50-period MA twice but failed to reclaim it, signaling strength in the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 18:00 ET, triggering a bearish crossover that coincided with a sharp drop from 455.1 to 428.9. The histogram showed a widening bearish divergence throughout the late ET and overnight hours. RSI reached a peak of 82 at 23:00 ET, suggesting overbought conditions, followed by a rapid decline to 28 by 05:00 ET, hinting at oversold territory. The RSI remains in neutral territory, offering limited directional signals.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility contracted briefly between 19:45 and 20:30 ET, narrowing Bollinger Bands around the 430.0–434.0 range. This was followed by a sharp break to the downside and a wide expansion in the bands as volatility increased. Price spent most of the session outside the upper band between 17:30 and 22:45 ET, before settling closer to the lower band in the final hours, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 18:30–19:00 ET session as price surged to 450.1, followed by a major decline during the 23:15–23:30 ET window. Notional turnover peaked at 18:30 ET with a large candle (open: 441.6, close: 436.4) on 35,673.6 units traded. A divergence between price and volume became apparent in the early morning hours, with price falling sharply while volume remained moderate. This suggests potential exhaustion in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 433.0 acted as key resistance during the afternoon rally. Price then tested the 38.2% level at 425.0, which held briefly before breaking lower. On the 15-minute chart, a short-term swing from 421.1 to 455.1 saw price retrace to the 50% level near 438.1 before reversing again. These levels may serve as watchpoints for potential reversals or continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of overbought RSI levels and key resistance rejections, an RSI overbought (70+/-) trigger-based strategy could have captured the 18:00–23:00 ET sell-off. However, the absence of direct NEARJPY data means we must rely on an alternative symbol for backtesting. Using NEAR-USDT data would yield the same percentage-based returns due to the invariance of price trends to quote currency. If NEARJPY data is not available, a NEAR-USDT-based strategy could still be tested, and results later adjusted using historical USD/JPY exchange rates for JPY performance. Please indicate your preferred data source to proceed.

The candlestick chart for NEARJPY (2025-11-07 12:00 ET to 2025-11-08 12:00 ET) should highlight the bearish engulfing pattern near 430.0, the doji at 03:15 ET, and the sharp drop from 455.1 to 428.9 during the overnight session.

A visual of the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossing below price during the late ET and overnight hours, alongside RSI moving from overbought to oversold, would provide clarity on the bearish momentum. The Bollinger Bands chart should display a pre-breakout contraction and post-breakout expansion for volatility insights.