Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY)

Summary
• NEARJPY climbed from 439.5 to 478.6, showing bullish momentum.
• Key support levels include 450.0–453.6; resistance at 465.1–472.2.
• Volume surged at 05:15 ET, confirming the breakout.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions, while Bollinger Bands show rising volatility.
• MACD analysis is pending; synthetic data may be used for backtesting.

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at 439.5 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 478.6 at 12:00 ET. The pair touched a 24-hour high of 478.6 and a low of 439.5, posting a 9.1% gain over 24 hours. Total volume for the period was 92,387.5 contracts, with notional turnover amounting to 43,090,893.7 JPY.

Structure & Formations

NEARJPY exhibited a strong bullish trend with a significant price expansion. Key support levels are now at 450.0–453.6, with recent lows forming a base that has been tested multiple times without breaking. Resistance levels appear at 465.1–472.2, where the price paused before surging higher. Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing at 20:00 ET–1 and a strong white candle with minimal shadow at 05:15 ET, which confirmed the breakout.

Bullish Implications

The price action suggests strong conviction among buyers, particularly in the 03:45–06:00 ET window. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bullish, with the 50-period line crossing above the 20-period line, forming a golden cross. This reinforces the positive bias. On the daily chart, the 100- and 200-period moving averages are also trending higher, aligning with the short-term trend.

Volatile Expansion

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as the price moved through key resistance levels, indicating rising volatility. Price action currently resides near the upper band, which may signal potential overbought conditions. This also aligns with the RSI, which entered overbought territory, exceeding 70. The overbought RSI suggests a potential pullback, though strong volume may delay such a correction.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume surged at 05:15 ET, where the price broke above 472.2. This high-volume bar is one of the largest of the day, confirming the breakout. Notional turnover at that time was over 4 million JPY, aligning with price movement. However, a divergence appears at 05:45 ET–1, where price dipped but volume remained low—potentially signaling weakening bearish conviction. The strong volume at the close confirms the bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute chart, the price broke above the 61.8% level at 469.2 and extended into overbought territory. This suggests the trend remains intact, with potential continuation toward the 100% extension. On the daily chart, the move from 439.5 to 478.6 represents a 49.1 JPY increase, with the 38.2% retracement at 460.1 and the 61.8% at 453.5—both acting as key levels for potential pullbacks.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given that the MACD for NEARJPY could not be retrieved, a synthetic approximation can be constructed by cross-multiplying NEAR-USD and USD-JPY data. This method can generate a reliable NEARJPY series to compute the MACD. A 5-day holding backtest using this synthetic series could then be performed to evaluate its effectiveness as a momentum indicator. This approach aligns with the observed price action and volume dynamics, suggesting the potential for a robust momentum-based strategy, especially in the context of a breakout like the one observed on 2025-11-10.

Looking ahead, NEARJPY could test the 485.0 resistance level if bullish conviction remains intact. Traders should monitor the RSI for potential overbought divergence and keep an eye on volume patterns to confirm continuation or correction. A pullback to the 450.0–453.6 range could offer a new entry opportunity, but a sharp drop below that would signal a possible trend reversal. As always, volatility remains high, so risk management remains essential.