Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY)

• NEARJPY declined from 454.4 to 432.8, reflecting bearish momentum with a large volume spike near session high.
• Price spent over 10 hours below 450.0, with key resistance at 450.4 and support at 439.9.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened; RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30.
• A large-volume reversal candle (453.6–447.7) and bearish engulfing pattern signaled a potential short-term top.
• Turnover increased with price, but volume diverged slightly late in the session, hinting at potential exhaustion.

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at 442.0 on October 3 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 454.4 before closing at 432.8 on October 4 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session saw a total traded volume of 24,764.8 and a turnover of approximately ¥10,715,637.8, highlighting mixed price movement and increased trading intensity.

The 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a bearish reversal pattern from late afternoon to evening ET, with a large-volume candle printing at 16:45 ET that capped the upward move. This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern starting at 17:15 ET, reinforcing the shift in sentiment. Price failed to reclaim the 450.0 psychological level and instead fell to key support at 439.9, where a bullish bounce occurred. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart was bearish through the session, while the 50-period line confirmed the downward trend with late support near 439.9.

MACD remained bearish with a negative histogram, indicating weakening upward momentum, while RSI dipped to 28, signaling oversold conditions. However, price did not find sustained support at this level. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded during the session with the price often touching the lower band and briefly breaching it during the early hours. This suggests increased uncertainty and potential for a retest of key levels. The 50-period daily MA remains a critical level to watch for potential support or rejection.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent swing high at 454.4 and low at 432.4 show key levels at 445.6 (38.2%) and 438.0 (61.8%), which have coincided with observed price behavior. The 200-period daily MA is expected to provide long-term direction in the coming session.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy involves a trend-following approach triggered by a 20-period moving average crossing below the 50-period on a 15-minute chart, with stop-loss placed at the recent swing low and take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bearish leg. Given the recent bearish engulfing and divergence in volume late in the session, the strategy would have entered short at 453.6–447.7 and closed the position near 441.0 with a favorable risk-reward ratio. A trailing stop could be introduced after a 5% move in favor to capitalize on potential continuation.