Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY)

• NEARJPY dropped from 454.1 to 431.7 on 9/23 before rallying 14.4% to 446.0 by 9/24 06:00 ET.
• A bearish reversal pattern formed at 431.7, followed by a strong bullish rebound.
• Volume surged at 442.7 and 454.0, confirming key price levels.
• RSI hit oversold territory at 28 before a rebound, suggesting potential momentum shift.
• Bollinger Bands showed volatility expansion post-05:30 ET, aligning with the breakout from consolidation.

NEARJPY opened at 454.1 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, dropped to a low of 431.7, and closed at 450.1 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-24. The 24-hour price range was 431.7–454.0, with total volume of 106,198.8 and turnover of 46,197,097.0 Yen. The price action reflects a clear shift from bearish to bullish momentum late in the session.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish shooting star at 431.7 and a bullish engulfing pattern at 442.7, suggesting key turning points. A doji appeared at 434.3, signaling indecision. The price consolidated between 431.7–442.7 before breaking higher with a strong green candle at 445.8. This breakout confirmed a shift in sentiment and provided a short-term bullish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed above the 50SMA between 443.3–445.0, forming a bullish crossover. The 50-period line acted as a support during the consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 50DMA has been rising and currently sits at 440.5, with the 100DMA at 438.7 and 200DMA at 436.1, suggesting a potential continuation of the upward move.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive at 442.7, confirming bullish momentum. The histogram showed a significant positive divergence as price moved from 442.7 to 454.0. RSI bottomed at 28 at 431.7 and rose to 58 by 454.0, indicating a move out of oversold territory. The RSI divergence and rising MACD together suggest that the bullish trend may continue for at least the next 24 hours, barring a strong countertrend move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply after 05:30 ET, with the upper band reaching 452.4 and the lower band at 448.9. Price stayed above the 20-period Bollinger Middle Band (450.1) throughout the final 6–8 hours, indicating strong bullish control. The expansion of the bands suggests a period of heightened activity and could signal potential for a continuation of the rally or a consolidation phase if price retests the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly at key reversal levels: 431.7, 442.7, and 454.0. The largest volume spike was at 442.7, where 1,937.2 units traded, confirming the breakout. Notional turnover also rose in line with these price actions, with no divergence observed. This suggests that the move from 431.7–454.0 was driven by strong buyer participation, particularly in the final 6–8 hours of the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements from the 431.7–454.0 swing, the 38.2% level (442.9) and 61.8% level (448.9) were clearly tested and held. Price retested 448.9 twice and closed at 450.1, just above the 61.8% retracement. If price continues higher, the next Fibonacci level to watch is 454.4. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement at 440.7 was well-supported, reinforcing the current bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when the 20SMA crosses above the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart and price stays above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior swing. This would align with the observed bullish crossover at 443.3 and the retest of the 61.8% level (448.9). A stop-loss is placed below the 442.7 low, and a take-profit is set at 454.4, the next Fibonacci level. If price closes above 450.1 and volume remains supportive, this setup could offer a favorable risk/reward profile in the next 24 hours.