Market Overview: NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY)

• Price surged from 454.8 to 485.4, a 6.7% rally in last 6 hours.
• Strong bullish momentum seen on MACD and RSI, suggesting overbought conditions.
• Volatility spiked with Bollinger Band expansion following the breakout.
• High-volume clusters confirmed the price increase, validating the move.
• Key resistance appears to be forming near 485.4; a pullback may test 465.0–470.0.

24-Hour Summary

NEARJPY opened at 464.6 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 485.4, and closed at 470.3 by 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. The price exhibited a sharp rally, particularly in the last 6 hours, breaking above key resistance levels. Total volume reached 33,734.5 units, with turnover amounting to ¥16,081,969. The market appears to be in a strong bullish momentum phase.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a strong bullish reversal pattern following a deep pullback into 454.8. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 2025-09-20 15:15–15:30 timeframe, confirming the breakout above 470.0. The high of the day at 485.4 appears to be a new short-term resistance level. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior swing low-to-high lies near 475.0, suggesting a possible consolidation zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke above the 20- and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing bullish momentum. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) are all trending upward, supporting a longer-term bullish outlook. The 50-day SMA currently sits at around 460.0, well below the current price, suggesting room for further upside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line and remains in positive territory, indicating sustained bullish momentum. RSI has pushed into overbought territory, reaching 70–72 in the last 6 hours, suggesting a possible near-term pause. However, due to the strength of the move, a continuation above 475.0 may delay a correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked with the price breaking above the upper band at 485.4. The bands have expanded significantly, reflecting the sharp move. If the price consolidates in the next 24 hours, a retraction into the bands could indicate a temporary pause before another push higher.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at the time of the breakout, especially between 15:00–16:00 ET, confirming the strength of the move. Turnover spiked in tandem with volume, particularly during the 15:15–15:45 ET window, as the price advanced from 470.8 to 485.4. No major divergences are evident, and the positive correlation between price and volume supports the bullish case.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing low (454.8) and high (485.4), the 38.2% level is at 473.3 and the 61.8% level at 469.4. These levels may serve as support during a potential pullback. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the prior month’s move aligns with 440.0–450.0, suggesting deeper support if the bearish phase extends.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for NEARJPY involves entering a long position when the price breaks above the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and RSI above 50. A stop-loss is placed below the 50-period EMA or the last swing low, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the upper Bollinger Band. This setup has shown effectiveness in recent breakouts and could be a repeatable method to capture short-term momentum in a trending market.