Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY): 24-Hour Swing and Oversold Momentum

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• NEARJPY experienced a sharp bearish swing, dropping from 430.8 to 400.0 Yen within the 24-hour period.
• Momentum weakened as RSI fell into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce.
• High volatility was observed with a peak-to-trough swing of 27.8 Yen, but volume remained moderate.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early, followed by a possible bullish divergence in volume.
• Price retested a key support level at 400.0 Yen, but failed to close above it, signaling continued bearish pressure.

The 24-hour period for NEARJPY, measured from 12:00 ET – 1 to 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26, saw the pair open at 430.5 Yen and fall to an intraday low of 394.5 Yen before closing at 410.6 Yen. Total volume amounted to approximately 18,986.6 units, and total notional turnover reached 7,993,285.8 JPY, reflecting active but uneven participation across the session.

Structure and formations suggest a bearish bias, with a strong downward impulse beginning around 19:15 ET, as NEARJPY broke below a key psychological level of 420.0 Yen. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the start of the downward move, followed by a wide-range candle with a long lower wick, indicating rejection of further bearish territory. A potential bullish divergence appears in the latter half of the session as volume picked up despite a muted price response, hinting at a potential short-term reversal.

Moving averages for the 15-minute timeframe show a clear bearish crossover, with the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA. Over the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA is below both the 100 and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the downtrend. NEARJPY remains below all key MAs, signaling a continuation of bearish sentiment.

MACD turned negative and showed bearish divergence in the latter part of the session, with the histogram shrinking as volume increased, suggesting fading bearish momentum. RSI dipped into the 30s, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a near-term bounce. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the price drop, with NEARJPY briefly touching the lower band, which was followed by a small countertrend move. Volatility appears to be peaking, with price near the lower band suggesting a short-term pullback may be in order.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent 15-minute swing (430.8 to 400.0) show NEARJPY closing just above the 61.8% retracement level at ~411.3 Yen. This suggests a possible area of interest for short-term traders looking to take advantage of potential mean reversion or consolidation. Over the daily chart, key Fibonacci support levels remain untested, but the 400.0 level appears to be a meaningful floor for the pair.

Looking ahead, NEARJPY may consolidate around the 410.0–415.0 Yen range over the next 24 hours, with a risk of a further bearish break below 400.0 Yen if bearish momentum continues. Investors should closely monitor volume dynamics and RSI for signs of exhaustion or reacceleration.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy under consideration targets short-term mean reversion by entering long positions when NEARJPY closes above the 20-period MA with increasing volume and RSI below 35, while short positions are triggered when NEARJPY closes below the 20-period MA with a bearish candlestick pattern and RSI above 70. Stop-loss levels are placed at the nearest Fibonacci support or resistance level, and take-profit targets are set at 1.5x the risk size. Given the current market conditions—particularly the RSI in oversold territory and the bearish engulfing formation—this strategy could see a high probability of a short-term bounce. However, with the 400.0 Yen level holding firm, caution is advised before committing long positions.