Market Overview: NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) – 24-Hour Summary and Technical Breakdown

• NEARJPY rose from 427.5 to 452.1, forming a bullish rally on rising volume and momentum.
• Strong resistance appears at 449.2, with price testing this level multiple times.
• RSI showed signs of overbought conditions during the rally, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Volatility expanded through the session, with heavy buying in the 03:00–08:00 ET window.
• A large bullish engulfing pattern formed near 430.0–436.0, supporting a continuation bias.

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at 427.5 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 455.7, dropped to a low of 446.0, and closed at 452.1 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 16996.0 units, with notional turnover reaching 7,441,673.1 JPY. The price exhibited strong upward momentum, particularly during the 03:00–08:00 ET window.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bullish trend from 427.5 to a peak of 455.7, with key support levels forming at 446.0, 444.0, and 441.5, and resistance at 449.2, 452.2, and 455.7. A large bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 430.0–436.0, signaling a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. Doji patterns were observed at 449.3 and 446.0, indicating indecision. A 15-minute bearish reversal pattern was noted at 458.6–456.4, but buyers quickly reclaimed the lost ground.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in a golden cross formation, confirming the bullish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA crossed above the 200-period MA, signaling a potential long-term trend reversal. Price has remained above both the 20 and 50-period MAs, reinforcing the bullish bias. The 100-period MA acted as a minor resistance near 449.2, with price bouncing off it multiple times.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram expanded positively during the 03:00–08:00 ET window, confirming the bullish surge. The RSI crossed above 60, indicating strong momentum and overbought conditions during the rally. However, it pulled back to mid-50s after a sharp correction at 446.0, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation. RSI and MACD aligned during the 05:00–07:00 ET window, reinforcing the strength of the move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 03:00–08:00 ET window, with the Bollinger Bands widening from 440.0–450.0 to 444.0–456.0. Price traded near the upper band for much of the session, reaching the 455.7 high. A contraction occurred at 444.0–449.2 prior to the breakout, suggesting a potential reversal setup. Currently, NEARJPY remains near the upper band, indicating overbought territory and a possible pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 03:00–08:00 ET window, reaching 2010.6 units at 07:45 ET, coinciding with a sharp move from 462.8 to 464.0. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with the largest spike at 464.0, reaching 930,000 JPY. There were no notable divergences between price and volume; both confirmed the bullish trend. However, volume dipped during the pullback at 446.0–444.0, signaling caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a 61.8% retracement level at 449.2 acted as strong resistance, while the 38.2% level at 446.0 provided support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent leg from 427.5 to 455.7 was 444.0, which held as support twice. A potential extension target of 460.0–465.0 may be in focus if the rally continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the technical indicators above, a potential trend-following backtest strategy could involve entering long positions on a golden cross of the 20/50-period MAs on the 15-minute chart, with stop-loss placed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (446.0) and take-profit at the 61.8% level (449.2) or beyond. This approach would aim to capture short-term momentum while managing risk with clear entry and exit levels. The high volume and strong RSI readings in the early hours of the session validate the strategy’s potential, especially during periods of market expansion and clear trend formation.