Market Overview: NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) — 24-Hour Summary (2025-10-08)

• NEARJPY surged above 450.0 Yen before consolidating near 449.3.
• Momentum shifted from bullish to mixed, with RSI hovering near 50.
• Volatility expanded mid-day before contracting in final hours.
• Volume spiked late morning, with a 15-minute candle showing 961.5 Yen turnover.
• A potential bearish reversal pattern formed near 450.7, signaling cautious bearish pressure.

The NEAR Protocol/Yen pair (NEARJPY) opened at 442.3 Yen on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and surged to an intraday high of 456.7 Yen before retreating to a 24-hour closing price of 449.3 Yen. The pair saw significant price swings, driven by mid-day bullish momentum followed by late-day consolidation. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 18,944.2, with notional turnover of 6,979,790.1 Yen.

Structure & Formations

Price found temporary resistance at 450.7 and 453.9, with a 15-minute candle closing bearish at 450.6 after a bullish open at 446.4. Key support levels emerged at 445.0 and 448.6, with the price consolidating above 449.0 in the final hours. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed at 450.6—450.7, suggesting short-term bearish pressure. A doji appeared at 449.1–449.1, hinting at indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (447.8) and 50-period MA (449.0) crossed near 449.0, forming a potential golden cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (446.4) and 200-period MA (444.2) remain in a slight bullish alignment, with price currently trading above both. This suggests continued medium-term strength, though recent volatility may challenge this outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 449.0, signaling bullish momentum, but diverged slightly in the final hours as price moved lower. RSI hovered around 50, indicating a neutral balance between buyers and sellers, though short-term overbought conditions were observed around 453.9. The oscillator failed to confirm higher highs above 450.7, suggesting bearish caution.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded mid-day, with price trading near the upper band at 456.7, followed by a contraction in the late hours as the price settled near the middle band at 449.3. The 20-period Bollinger Band width increased from 4.9 to 8.9 during the peak volatility period, suggesting a potential reversal or continuation could follow depending on volume dynamics.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 12:00–14:00 ET period, with the largest single 15-minute turnover of 961.5 Yen occurring at 12:00 ET. A divergence was observed between volume and price in the 14:15–15:45 ET period, where price declined despite rising volume. This suggests increased bearish conviction, though the final 15-minute candle saw a 3011.7 Yen turnover with a bullish close, hinting at possible stabilization.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 442.3–456.7 swing, key levels at 38.2% (450.7) and 61.8% (446.0) were clearly tested. Price found support at the 61.8% level (446.0) and bounced upward, but failed to maintain above the 38.2% level in the final hours. This suggests that the 449.0–450.0 range may be a critical consolidation zone in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy suggests entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and the RSI remains above 55, with a stop-loss set below the previous 15-minute low. This aligns with the observed golden cross near 449.0 and the strong RSI rebound in the 12:00–14:00 ET period. While the strategy was validated in the morning session, the bearish engulfing pattern at 450.7 and the volume divergence in the late session suggest that caution is warranted. A revised approach may include a short bias if a close below the 449.0 support level is confirmed with increased volume.