Market Overview: NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) – 24-Hour Price Behavior and Momentum Shifts

• NEARJPY posted a 24-hour range of ¥342.4 to ¥472.7, closing 1.7% lower at ¥379.0.
• Price action shows bearish momentum, with a key breakdown below ¥400.
• Volatility expanded during the session, with a high of ¥472.7 and a close near ¥379.0.
• Turnover surged during the early part of the session, suggesting significant liquidation.
• A large bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at ¥342.4–¥379.9 hints at short-term exhaustion.

NEARJPY opened at ¥455.3 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of ¥472.7, and closed at ¥379.0 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 83,820.5, and notional turnover was approximately ¥30,289,154.5. The pair exhibited a sharp decline, with bearish control intensifying in the second half of the session.

Structure & Formations

The price structure of NEARJPY reflects a bearish trend, with multiple bearish engulfing patterns and long lower shadows indicating selling pressure. A key support level appears at ¥365.3, where price found multiple pauses after sharp declines. Resistance is evident around ¥460–470, where initial bearish momentum was triggered. A doji formed at ¥367.1 on the 15-minute chart, signaling indecision at that level. The bearish breakdown from ¥423.2 to ¥379.0 suggests potential for further downside near ¥355.8, a previous support zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, NEARJPY closed well below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing bearish bias. The 50-period moving average currently sits at ¥376.5, suggesting price may consolidate or retest that level before further directional movement. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are likely aligned in a bearish crossover, adding technical weight to the current downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for NEARJPY remained negative for most of the session, confirming the bearish bias, with a bearish crossover and bearish histogram. RSI dropped below 30, reaching as low as 27.8, indicating oversold conditions, though this does not necessarily signal a reversal. Price remains below the 50-line on both RSI and MACD, suggesting continued bearish momentum. A reversal could occur if price breaks above ¥385 with confirmation on both momentum indicators.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the breakdown from ¥423.2 to ¥379.0, with Bollinger Bands widening. NEARJPY closed near the lower band, indicating potential for a mean reversion trade back toward the 20-period moving average. However, given the strong bearish momentum, a break below the lower band could extend the downtrend. A contraction in volatility may signal a pause or reversal ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the initial bearish breakdown between ¥423.2 and ¥397.1, confirming strong conviction in the move lower. However, volume during the subsequent leg to ¥379.0 was relatively lower, suggesting exhaustion. Notional turnover also declined after the initial breakdown, pointing to possible profit-taking. A divergence between price and volume could signal a short-term reversal if a bullish candle forms above ¥385 with strong volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from ¥472.7 to ¥342.4, key levels include 38.2% at ¥407.5 and 61.8% at ¥389.0. Price failed to hold the 61.8% level and continued lower, suggesting further support near ¥371.7 (23.6% retracement). On a larger scale, the daily Fibonacci levels from ¥467.2 to ¥342.4 show 50% at ¥404.8 and 38.2% at ¥433.6, both of which failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could focus on identifying bearish engulfing patterns or breakdowns below key moving averages, particularly the 50-period line on the 15-minute chart, as observed in today's session. If combined with a bearish MACD crossover and RSI below 30, a sell entry could be triggered with a stop above the recent high. The target could be the next Fibonacci level or the previous support zone. Given the recent volume confirmation and momentum alignment, this setup may offer a favorable risk-reward ratio.