Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price surged to ¥462.0 before consolidating around ¥434.7 at the 24-hour close
• High volume driven by strong buying near ¥450–460, later selling pressure at ¥434–439
• RSI showed overbought conditions during bullish phase, later entered oversold territory
• Bollinger Bands contracted before a sharp price reversal into the lower band
• Fibonacci retracements indicate potential support at ¥440.0 and resistance at ¥454.0

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at ¥444.6 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of ¥462.0 before closing at ¥434.7 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total volume over 24 hours was 18,023.4, with a notional turnover of ¥6,926,172.0. The price action included a sharp bullish move, a consolidation phase, and a bearish breakdown, reflecting mixed sentiment.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a broad ascending triangle between ¥444.6 and ¥462.0 before breaking down decisively. A long bearish shadow appeared near ¥440.3, signaling indecision and a potential reversal. Key support levels formed around ¥434.7 and ¥438.6, while resistance remains at ¥443.1 and ¥446.7. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged at ¥440.3–440.5, confirming the downward shift.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, indicating bearish momentum. Daily MAs (50, 100, 200) show a flat to slightly bearish bias, with the 200-period MA at ¥446.0 acting as a key level. Price currently trades below all three, suggesting ongoing bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and remained in the red zone, aligning with the bearish breakdown. RSI dipped into oversold territory near ¥434.7, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but not a reversal. The divergence between RSI and price during the breakdown phase implies bearish exhaustion may be near.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction around ¥440.0–442.0 before a sharp expansion downward. Price currently sits near the lower band at ¥434.7, indicating oversold conditions and heightened volatility. This could suggest a potential rebound or further decline depending on volume and order flow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bullish phase (¥450–462.0) with a single 15-minute interval at 17:15 ET showing 4,429.4 units, the highest in the dataset. Turnover spiked in tandem, confirming the strength of the rally. In contrast, the breakdown saw moderate volume, suggesting weak conviction among bears.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the ¥444.6–462.0 rally, the 61.8% level is at ¥452.5 and the 38.2% at ¥451.7. Price tested these levels before falling below, suggesting bearish continuation. On the downward leg from ¥462.0 to ¥434.7, the 23.6% retracement level at ¥448.4 appears to have offered minor support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions on the breakout above the 20-period MA with a stop-loss below the prior 15-minute low. Conversely, short positions could be initiated on RSI divergence and volume spikes below the Bollinger Band lower bound. This approach aligns with the observed momentum shifts and could offer entry and exit signals over the next 24 hours.