Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) - 2025-11-03

Summary• NEARJPY dropped 10.6% in 24 hours, ending near 309.8 JPY.• Key support tested at 295.6–309.6 JPY with volume surging during the decline.• Volatility rose as the price broke below the Bollinger Band midline.• No strong reversal patterns yet, but volume diverges at lower levels.• RSI near 20 suggests oversold conditions may attract short-term bidders.

Market Overview

At 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at 327.4 JPY, touched a high of 339.7 JPY, and closed near 309.8 JPY, marking a -10.6% move over 24 hours. The pair traded within a broad range of 304.6–339.7 JPY, with a total volume of 76,213.3 and turnover of 24,622,819.6 JPY. Price action shows a clear breakdown from recent highs, with bearish momentum dominating the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours displayed a bearish continuation pattern, with the key support zone forming between 295.6 and 309.6 JPY. Notable bearish structures include a long lower shadow at the 311.3 JPY level and a bullish engulfing pattern near the 298.0 JPY level, which may signal a potential short-term bounce. However, these are not strong enough to reverse the broader downtrend. A bearish flag pattern is forming as the price consolidates near 309.8 JPY, with the flagpole extending from 339.3 JPY to 309.6 JPY. Watch for a breakdown below 309.6 JPY for confirmation of further bearish bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, NEARJPY has closed below both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, indicating a short-term bearish bias. The 50-period SMA is at 322.6 JPY and is acting as a dynamic resistance. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period SMAs are at 326.3 JPY, 325.7 JPY, and 325.1 JPY, respectively. All moving averages are in a downtrend, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

MACD & RSI

The 12-26 MACD line closed at -12.4 JPY with the signal line at -10.3 JPY, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram is in negative territory, indicating a widening bearish divergence. RSI closed at 20.3, suggesting the pair is in oversold territory. However, RSI remains below 30 for extended periods, indicating a potential false oversold condition rather than a reversal signal.

Bollinger Bands

Price is currently trading near the lower Bollinger Band, which is at 309.3 JPY. The 20-period Bollinger Band width is at 8.7 JPY, up from 7.1 JPY earlier in the session, indicating expanding volatility as the bearish trend accelerates. The midline sits at 319.7 JPY, and price has moved well below it, reinforcing the bearish bias. A retest of the midline could trigger a short-term bounce, but sustained break below the lower band may lead to further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume reached 76,213.3 over 24 hours, with the highest concentration near the breakdown at 309.6 JPY and in the 296.4–295.6 JPY range. Notional turnover surged to 24,622,819.6 JPY, especially between 15:30 and 16:00 ET. However, volume during the bounce from 296.4 to 308.0 JPY was relatively light, suggesting weak conviction from buyers. A volume spike during an attempted rally would be necessary to confirm a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels for the recent bearish move from 339.3 JPY to 309.6 JPY are at 332.4 (23.6%), 326.1 (38.2%), and 320.3 (50%). Price has closed near 311.5 JPY, slightly above the 61.8% level (308.2 JPY), suggesting the immediate support is now within reach. For the daily chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the larger move is at 318.0 JPY, which may act as a key level for short-term traders to watch.

Backtest Hypothesis

The data retrieval for the NEARJPY RSI series is currently unavailable, likely due to an incorrect symbol format or the pair not being supported by the data vendor. To proceed with a backtest, we can either adjust the symbol (e.g., NEARUSDT or NEARUSD) and convert to JPY, or switch to a supported venue such as Binance or Kraken. Once the correct symbol is confirmed, the RSI series can be retrieved, and a backtest can be initiated using a defined strategy based on RSI oversold conditions and moving average crossovers. This would allow for a data-driven assessment of potential trade entries and exits. If this is acceptable, please provide the adjusted symbol or preferred exchange.