Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) on 2025-10-14

• NEARJPY opened at ¥387.8 and surged to ¥408.0 before retracing to close near ¥367.1 at 12:00 ET.
• Volatility and volume spiked during the 18:00–21:00 ET window, with 373.3 and 513.7 contracts traded.
• Momentum shifted from overbought (RSI > 65) to oversold (RSI < 30) in under 4 hours, signaling rapid sentiment reversal. • Key support levels appear near ¥361.7–362.2, with a 20-period MA acting as a near-term resistance at ¥372.7. • Price spent over 8 hours inside contracting Bollinger Bands, suggesting potential for a breakout or breakdown.

Market Summary and Price Behavior

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at ¥387.8 at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of ¥408.0 before closing at ¥367.1 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 16,984.0 contracts, with turnover amounting to ¥6,405,640.3 (based on volume × price). The price experienced a broad intraday swing, with a net decline of 10.02% over 24 hours, marked by strong volatility in the mid to late evening hours.

Structure & Key Levels

Price formed a sharp bearish reversal pattern around the ¥408.0 high, with a bearish engulfing pattern emerging between ¥405.6 and ¥403.0. This was followed by a consolidation phase around ¥401.1–399.4, before breaking down below ¥395.6. Key resistance levels were observed at ¥372.7, ¥381.1, and ¥392.8, while critical support zones formed at ¥361.7–362.2 and ¥358.5. A potential continuation of the bearish trend could target ¥350.0 if the current support fails.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a bearish bias, with the 50-period line crossing below the 20-period line in the late evening hours (around 21:00–22:00 ET). RSI dropped from 66.3 to 27.8 within 4 hours, signaling exhaustion in the bullish trend. MACD turned negative after 19:00 ET, with a bearish crossover confirmed by the signal line, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly in the 18:00–20:00 ET window, with price breaking above the upper Bollinger Band before retreating below the lower band by 02:00 ET. The subsequent consolidation within a narrowing band between ¥395.6–399.4 suggests a potential breakout or breakdown in the near term. Price has spent 35% of the 24-hour period outside the bands, indicating heightened risk in either direction.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volume spiked to 754.0 contracts at ¥408.0, confirming the bearish reversal, and again at ¥367.1 with 1911.9 contracts traded. However, the closing phase saw declining volume (only 1.2 contracts at ¥374.5), suggesting waning momentum. Notional turnover increased in tandem with volume in the mid to late evening, then declined sharply after 05:00 ET, indicating reduced participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels drawn from the ¥361.7 low to the ¥408.0 high suggest key levels at ¥389.5 (38.2%), ¥381.0 (50.0%), and ¥373.2 (61.8%). Price stalled near ¥381.1 before breaking down further, confirming that the 50.0% retracement acted as resistance. The next significant retracement to watch is ¥364.5 (78.6%), which could act as a short-term support or pivot.

Backtest Hypothesis

With the Bearish Engulfing pattern detection system temporarily unavailable, a backtest could be reinitialized using the 15-minute OHLC data provided. A viable approach would involve manually identifying Bearish Engulfing patterns (where the close of a candle is below the open of the previous candle and the range of the engulfing candle is wider) and using these as entry signals for short positions. The RSI and MACD indicators align with this hypothesis, as both confirmed bearish momentum shifts. Re-running the query or sourcing alternative data for pattern confirmation would be prudent to validate the strategy before further execution.