Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) on 2025-10-12

• NEARJPY fell to a 24-hour low of 344.1 before stabilizing near 350.0
• Momentum slowed in the final hours, with RSI approaching oversold levels
• Volatility expanded during a sharp drop to 344.1, but volume remained muted
• Bollinger Bands widened during the 12:00–16:00 ET window, reflecting increased uncertainty
• A bullish hammer pattern formed at the end of the session, hinting at potential reversal

NEARJPY opened at 365.3 (12:00 ET − 1), peaked at 372.7, and dipped to 344.1 before closing at 347.5 (12:00 ET). Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 19,430.8 units, while notional turnover reached a significant level, indicating elevated interest in the pair.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a distinct bearish breakdown from a prior 15-minute consolidation range between 360.0 and 370.0, culminating in a sharp drop to 344.1. The 344.1–351.0 range appears to be developing as a key support cluster, marked by a bullish hammer candle at 347.5 to 347.5 on the final candle of the 15-minute period. A potential doji at 348.9 to 348.9 also suggests indecision at the 348.0–350.0 level. These formations could indicate a near-term reversal or consolidation phase.

Support & Resistance

Key 15-minute support levels are forming at 344.1 (tested twice), 347.5 (recent hammer close), and 349.3 (a retest point). Resistance lies at 351.0, 353.6, and the recent high of 372.7. The 350.0 level appears to be a critical psychological and Fibonacci retracement level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both trended downward, indicating bearish momentum. Price has been below both in the final hours of the period. The daily 50-period MA is at ~354.0, while the 200-period MA sits at ~365.0. Price is currently below both, suggesting continued bearish bias in the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line earlier in the session and remained negative, with a moderate histogram that suggests slowing momentum. RSI has fallen into oversold territory (30.0–35.0) in the last two hours, signaling potential for a bounce or sideways consolidation. However, without a strong volume confirmation, the reversal signal remains weak.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 12:00–16:00 ET window, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands widening to reflect the sharp drop and consolidation phase. Price has since moved closer to the lower band, suggesting it may test that level again in the coming hours. The recent rebound off the lower band aligns with RSI oversold conditions, but caution is needed as divergence between volume and price action is visible.

Volume & Turnover

Notional turnover spiked during the 15:00–16:00 ET window as price surged to 372.7, but volume was muted during the subsequent sell-off to 344.1. This divergence could hint at profit-taking or a lack of follow-through buying. The final hour saw a modest volume increase as price closed near 347.5, which may be a sign of short-term stabilization.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major swing from 372.7 to 344.1, the 38.2% level is at ~361.0, the 50.0% at ~358.4, and the 61.8% at ~355.8. Price is currently trading near the 61.8% level (~355.8), suggesting potential for a test or consolidation at that key area before any further directional movement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a long position when NEARJPY closes above 350.0, supported by a bullish hammer or bullish engulfing pattern, with a stop loss placed below 347.5. A take-profit target could be set at the 50.0% Fibonacci level (~358.4) and extended to 361.0. This approach leverages both price action and Fibonacci structure, aligning with the observed momentum and volatility patterns in the last 24 hours. Given the recent oversold RSI and potential support clustering, this entry strategy may offer favorable risk/reward.