Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) as of 2025-09-27

• • NEARJPY opened at 407.9 and reached a high of 418.8, closing at 405.7 with mixed bearish and bullish momentum.
• • The price action showed a significant consolidation phase after reaching intraday highs, with a bearish trend resuming post 21:00 ET.
• • Volume spiked during the afternoon and early evening but declined sharply overnight, suggesting reduced conviction in the short-term trend.
• • RSI entered overbought territory temporarily, but failed to sustain above 70, indicating weak follow-through in the bullish phase.
• • Bollinger Bands widened midday, reflecting increased volatility, followed by a contraction as the price drifted lower post-20:00 ET.

The NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) pair opened at 407.9 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and reached an intraday high of 418.8 before closing at 405.7 on 2025-09-27 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume during the 24-hour period was 15,563.9, and notional turnover was approximately 6.34 million JPY. The price action revealed a bullish breakout attempt during the afternoon, followed by a reversal and bearish consolidation into the early morning.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart indicated a failed bullish thrust, with price rejecting the 418.8 high and forming a bearish harami at 22:30 ET. Key support levels were seen around 411.4 and 406.4, while resistance held at 413.1 and 415.4. A long-legged doji formed at 00:45 ET, suggesting indecision and a potential turning point, though bearish continuation followed.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bullish crossover earlier in the day, aligning with the price’s attempt to break out. However, as the price drifted lower, the 50-period MA turned bearish, reflecting a loss of momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 100-period MAs were closely aligned, indicating a sideways bias over the longer term. The 200-period MA remained above the current price, suggesting a bearish bias for the broader trend.

MACD showed a positive divergence during the bullish phase, but a bearish crossover occurred late in the evening as the price declined. The RSI fluctuated between overbought (70+) and neutral territory, failing to maintain a bullish signal for more than an hour. Bollinger Bands expanded during the high-volume bullish phase and then narrowed as price action became range-bound. NEARJPY closed near the lower band, suggesting a potential oversold condition, though volume was weak at this level.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 407.9 to 418.8 swing indicated a 61.8% level at approximately 414.0, which acted as a key resistance. The 38.2% retracement level at 413.0 coincided with a prior support area, confirming its importance. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement from the recent high to low was seen at 404.7, which closely matched the closing price. These levels suggest that the price may find support or resistance within the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price behavior, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position on a bearish breakout below the 411.4 support with a stop-loss above the 415.4 resistance. A take-profit could be placed at the 406.4 level, which served as a prior support and recent consolidation point. This strategy leverages key Fibonacci levels and volume divergence seen in the late evening. A similar long-biased setup could be tested on a bullish breakout above 415.4, with a stop below 411.4 and a target at the 418.8 high. The effectiveness of this strategy would depend on maintaining low volatility and confirmation through momentum indicators like RSI and MACD.