Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) — 2025-09-05 12:00 ET

• Price closed near session high amid bullish divergence in early morning ET
• Strong 2.4% rally from 354.0 to 360.9 in 4.5 hours, driven by sharp volume increase
• RSI overbought, yet price remains within key Bollinger Band range
• Volume surged 13x above average during 06:45–08:00 ET, confirming upward break

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at 354.0 JPY at 12:00 ET−1 and reached a high of 360.9 JPY during the session. The 24-hour range extended from 351.3 to 360.9, with a close of 357.2 JPY at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded was 9,147.1, and notional turnover (amount) was 96,138. The price action reflected a late-night consolidation after an early-morning breakout.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support level forming at 354.0–354.3 JPY, where multiple candles reversed or found buying interest. A strong bullish divergence appears at 04:45–05:45 ET, where price pulled back while volume remained strong. A key 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern formed at 06:15–06:30 ET, confirming a short-term breakout above the 358.9 level. The 355.0–355.3 JPY range emerged as a pivot zone, and price has held above it consistently after 04:45 ET. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the 02:15–03:30 rally aligns near 357.0–357.6 JPY, which the price touched before reversing.

Moving Averages and Volatility

Price closed above its 20 and 50-period 15-minute moving averages (approx. 354.7 and 355.1 JPY), indicating a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near 356.3 JPY, and the 200-period MA is at 351.4 JPY, suggesting a positive slope. Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion since 06:15 ET, with price currently sitting near the upper band at 360.9 JPY, indicating a period of high volatility. The recent break above the upper band may signal a potential continuation, though a pullback to the middle band could trigger renewed buying interest.

MACD, RSI, and Momentum

The 15-minute MACD crossed above zero at 04:45 ET, confirming bullish momentum and staying positive throughout the session. The RSI briefly entered overbought territory at 75–80 during the 07:30–08:00 ET move to 360.9, suggesting caution for near-term overextension. However, price has not shown signs of exhaustion yet, with volume continuing to confirm each rally. A divergence in RSI during the 00:45–02:00 ET pullback indicates a potential low near 352.0 JPY, which has acted as a support more than once in the dataset.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically from 06:45 to 08:00 ET, with the 06:45–07:00 candle alone trading 402.5 units and closing at 360.9 JPY. This is one of the highest volume surges of the day, confirming the breakout above 358.9 JPY. The 07:30–07:45 candle also saw a large increase in turnover, suggesting strong institutional or large-cap investor activity. A volume divergence appears during the 00:15–00:45 ET pullback, with price dropping but volume remaining subdued. This suggests bearish exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci retracement level of 357.2 JPY marks the 61.8% level from the 02:15–04:15 rally. Price tested this level twice with indecision (06:30–07:00 and 08:00–08:15 ET), suggesting it could be a potential resistance. The 38.2% level (approx. 355.7 JPY) has also acted as a support zone multiple times. A bearish Fibonacci level at 353.0–353.4 JPY was confirmed by a bearish reversal candle at 18:30 ET, but has since held as a dynamic support.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential short-term breakout strategy could involve entering long at a 15-minute candle close above the 355.0 JPY pivot with a stop loss below 353.0 JPY and a target at 358.9–360.9 JPY. This would align with the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the upper Bollinger Band observed during the session. Given the confirmation from both volume and MACD divergence, this setup may offer a high-probability trade with a favorable risk-reward ratio. The recent bounce from 352.0 JPY and the consolidation above 355.0 suggest a strong support base, making this a viable test for a breakout-based strategy.