Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen

• NEARJPY opened at ¥461.0 and closed at ¥422.7, down 8.3% on elevated volume.
• Price tested multiple support levels, forming bearish engulfing and inside candles.
• RSI approached oversold territory, but volume failed to confirm strong buying pressure.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening after a contraction.
• A key support at ¥420.0 appears critical; a break could signal further downside to ¥410.0.

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at ¥461.0 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET and closed at ¥422.7 by 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, with a high of ¥464.8 and low of ¥418.0. Total volume over 24 hours was 35,694.3 units, with notional turnover of ¥15,711,360. The pair experienced a broad pullback, driven by bearish momentum and expanding volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed a bearish trend with multiple key support and resistance levels tested. A key area of resistance emerged around ¥464.8, where a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed a shift in sentiment. After a brief rally into the morning, NEARJPY formed a series of inside bars and bearish harami candles near ¥433.0, signaling consolidation before a decisive breakdown. A significant support level was identified at ¥420.0, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligning with this level from the ¥464.8 high and ¥418.0 low.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, NEARJPY has moved well below its 20- and 50-period moving averages, confirming bearish bias. The 50-period MA currently sits at ¥435.0, while the 20-period MA has dropped below ¥430.0. On the daily time frame, the price is below both the 50- and 200-day MAs, with the 50-day MA at ¥450.0 and the 200-day MA at ¥460.0. The breakdown below the 50-day MA could reinforce the bearish outlook.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, with a negative histogram indicating fading bullish momentum. RSI is currently at 30, approaching oversold territory, though it has yet to generate a convincing bullish reversal. Divergence between RSI and price remains a concern—RSI has flattened while price continues to decline—suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the final 8 hours of the day, indicating increased volatility. Price has closed well below the lower band, with the band width increasing from 3.5% to 8.0%. The prior contraction around ¥460.0 has given way to a breakout to the downside, raising the likelihood of further consolidation or a test of the ¥410.0 support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the key breakdown into the morning, with a 15-minute candle at 03:30 ET on 2025-09-25 showing 643.9 units and a price drop of ¥9.2. Total notional turnover reached ¥15,711,360 over 24 hours. Despite the price decline, volume remains relatively stable with no significant divergence. However, volume has been declining in the last 4 hours of the day, hinting at potential exhaustion or reduced conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels have played a significant role in the structure of the 24-hour move. From the ¥464.8 high and ¥418.0 low, the 61.8% retracement at ¥420.0 has served as a key support level. The 38.2% retracement at ¥440.0 was briefly tested but failed to hold. On the 15-minute chart, a minor rally in the early morning hit the 23.6% retracement at ¥447.0 before reversing. These levels may offer guidance for potential rebounds or breakdowns in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy focuses on a momentum-based short entry when RSI approaches oversold levels (< 30), price breaks below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, and volume spikes. A stop-loss is placed at the most recent swing high, with a target at the next Fibonacci support level. During the current 24-hour period, this strategy would have triggered a short signal around ¥430.0 as RSI dipped into oversold, the 50 MA was breached, and volume surged during the breakdown into the morning. The target at ¥420.0 aligns with a 61.8% retracement, offering a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5. This approach could be refined by incorporating Bollinger Band breakouts or MACD crossover confirmations to filter noise.