Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Yen (2025-11-12)

Summary
• NEARJPY opens at 415.5, hits 419.0 high before closing at 399.8 with bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signal overbought-to-oversold shift with declining volume.
• Bollinger Bands expand as price drops to the lower band, suggesting heightened volatility.

NEAR Protocol/Yen (NEARJPY) opened at 415.5 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET and reached a high of 419.0. It closed at 399.8 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12, with a low of 393.6. Total volume was 25,084.3 and turnover amounted to 9,974,593.7 JPY over the 24-hour period, reflecting active but inconsistent trading behavior.

Price action revealed a sharp decline beginning around 19:15 ET, where NEARJPY dropped from 409.6 to 405.9 on a large-volume candle. This was followed by a consolidation phase between 404.1 and 400.0 before further declines emerged in the early hours of the next day. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 02:30 ET, as a bullish open of 398.9 was followed by a bearish close of 395.2. This pattern may indicate a shift in sentiment from buyers to sellers.

On the 15-minute chart, NEARJPY tested key support levels, notably 400.0 and 395.0, with the latter currently showing resilience. Resistance levels are currently at 410.0 and 415.5, which were broken during the session but have failed to hold on the way back. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned with the price, indicating continued downward pressure. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line, forming a bearish "death cross" signal.

MACD turned negative in the final hours of the session, confirming a loss of bullish momentum. The RSI moved into oversold territory by 05:00 ET, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce or consolidation. However, Bollinger Bands show widening volatility as the price drifted near the lower band, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend is more probable than a reversal.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 419.0 high to the 393.6 low show that the current price of 399.8 has tested the 61.8% retracement level, which may serve as a temporary support. A break below 395.0 could bring the 38.2% level at 393.6 into focus, raising the risk of further downside.

Volume spiked during the initial leg down, with a peak volume of 2968.1 at 19:15 ET, but gradually declined during the consolidation phase. Notional turnover remained consistent with volume, suggesting no major divergence. However, the lack of follow-through buying during recovery attempts (e.g., from 395.2 to 399.8) indicates weak conviction among traders.

Looking ahead, NEARJPY may test 393.6 if the bearish trend continues, but a retest of the 400.0 level could attract short-covering or buying interest. Investors should remain cautious of extended volatility and potential news-driven events that may affect sentiment.

A bearish engulfing pattern at 02:30 ET and a death cross on the moving averages confirm a shift in momentum. RSI in oversold territory may hint at near-term consolidation, but volume and price action suggest continued bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy in question involves identifying Bullish and Bearish Engulfing patterns as entry signals, with stop-loss and take-profit levels derived from Fibonacci retracement levels and key support/resistance zones. Given today’s price action, the bearish engulfing pattern observed at 02:30 ET would have triggered a short signal, with a stop-loss above the 400.0 level and a target near 393.6. A retest of the 400.0 level may offer a second entry opportunity for short-term traders.