Market Overview: NEAR Protocol / Tether (NEARUSDT) — November 4, 2025

• Price dropped to 1.857, a key support level on 2025-11-04.
• Momentum turned bearish with RSI under 30 and bearish MACD crossover.
• Volatility expanded during the Asian session, confirming a downward breakout.
• Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off from 1.884 to 1.857 after 05:45 ET.
• NEARUSDT failed to reclaim key resistance at 1.90–1.91, indicating weak short-term bullish sentiment.

NEAR Protocol / Tether (NEARUSDT) opened at 1.944 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.882 as of 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 1.955, a low of 1.857, and total volume of approximately 46,381,953.0 with notional turnover of ~$88,594,497.00. The price action suggests a bearish consolidation into a key support zone.

Structure & Formations

The chart showed a clear breakdown from the 1.90–1.91 resistance range into support at 1.86–1.87. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 1.913, followed by a series of lower closes and a confirmation candle breaking below the 1.88 support. Price briefly tested the 1.857 level in the early hours of November 4 before consolidating slightly higher. A strong bearish bias is evident in the structure, with no immediate reversal signs.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, NEARUSDT closed below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA currently sits around 1.885, and the 20-period MA has dropped to 1.873. On the daily timeframe, the price remains below the 50- and 100-period MAs, with the 200-period MA acting as a potential long-term support at ~1.860. The cross of the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA ("death cross") on the 15-minute chart could signal a continuation of the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish with a cross below the signal line during the Asian session, confirming the breakdown. RSI dropped to 28–30 levels, indicating oversold conditions and a potential short-term bounce. However, as long as the price remains below 1.890, the bearish momentum is likely to persist. Both indicators suggest a continuation of the downtrend unless a strong bullish reversal occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Price action during the session saw a clear expansion in volatility as NEARUSDT broke below the lower Bollinger Band at 1.86–1.87. The bands were relatively wide during the breakdown phase, reflecting increased uncertainty and fear in the market. The current price of ~1.882 is trading just above the 1.86–1.87 support zone, with the lower band now acting as a dynamic support. A retest of the lower band could offer a potential entry for short-term buyers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the breakdown from 1.884 to 1.857, with a single candle at 05:45 ET showing a large 953,127.4 volume bar. This coincided with the price breaking below 1.88, confirming the move as a valid breakdown. Turnover also surged during this time, aligning with the price action and confirming the strength of the bearish move. Divergences were not observed during the session, but the volume profile suggests that sellers are in control.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements from the recent 1.857–1.913 swing show key levels at 1.882 (38.2%), 1.896 (50%), and 1.905 (61.8%). The current price is sitting near the 38.2% level, suggesting a potential bounce or retest of the 1.88–1.885 range. A failure to hold above 1.86–1.87 could lead to a deeper correction toward the 1.83–1.84 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent bearish engulfing pattern at 1.913 could serve as a strong candidate for backtesting. A short entry would typically be placed below the engulfing candle’s close (1.912), with a stop above its high (1.913). A profit target could be placed at the 1.88–1.885 level or deeper, depending on risk tolerance. While the pattern was confirmed and followed by a significant drop, further analysis would be required to determine its historical success rate across multiple timeframes and market conditions.