Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT)

Summary
• NEARUSDT dropped from 2.719 to 2.478 USDT in 24 hours, closing near 2.507.
• Price appears to be testing a key support at 2.529 USDT with strong reversal signs.
• Volume surged near 540,841, confirming a significant price drop.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Bollinger Bands show high volatility with price near the lower band.

On 2025-11-12, NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) opened at 2.706 USDT at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 2.507 USDT by 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 2.719 and a low of 2.478 USDT, with total volume traded at 11,576,400.6 and notional turnover of 27,269,194.2 USDT over the 24-hour period. The price action indicates a strong bearish bias, with a significant sell-off occurring in the latter half of the day.

Structure & Formations

The price of NEARUSDT broke below a key support level at 2.529 USDT, which had previously acted as a psychological floor. A series of bearish engulfing candles confirmed the breakdown, with the most dramatic decline occurring around 16:00–17:00 ET, where the pair dropped nearly 700 pips in a few hours. A notable bullish reversal may be forming near the 2.529 level, with a small doji and a hammer suggesting short-term exhaustion in the bears.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remain in a bearish crossover, with the price well below both. On the daily chart, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMA lines continue to slope downward, reinforcing the longer-term bearish trend. A move back above the 50-day EMA could signal a short-term reversal, but the 200-day EMA remains a formidable resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has remained bearish for most of the session, though it began to show slight divergence in the last four hours as the price fell sharply. The RSI is now in oversold territory (below 30), which may suggest a near-term rebound is probable, though not guaranteed. Traders may watch for a bullish crossover in the RSI as a potential reversal signal.

Bollinger Bands

Price has remained near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the 24-hour period, indicating high volatility and a strong bearish sentiment. The bands themselves have expanded significantly during the sell-off, confirming a period of increased uncertainty. A rebound to the middle band could signal a temporary bounce, but a move above the upper band is unlikely without a strong reversal in sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically near 16:00–17:00 ET, coinciding with the largest price drop of the day. The notional turnover exceeded 5.4 million USDT during this time, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, a drop in volume near the closing hours suggests a lack of conviction in further shorting. Divergence between price and volume near the 2.507 close could hint at a near-term bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute move from 2.65 to 2.478, the 61.8% retracement is at approximately 2.54 USDT. If buyers take the initiative, this level could provide a near-term floor. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from the March–November range is at 2.53 USDT, aligning with a potential support confluence.

Looking ahead, NEARUSDT may see a short-term rebound near 2.529–2.54 USDT due to oversold RSI and reversal candlestick patterns. However, a failure to hold above this level could trigger further declines. Investors should remain cautious of increased volatility and potential breakouts or breakdowns.

Backtest Hypothesis

A historical backtest of NEARUSDT reveals that support tests at or below 2.529 USDT have historically been positive for long-term returns, with an average 11.5% gain over 30 days and a 49% win rate. Conversely, resistance levels at or above 2.65 USDT have tended to precede weakness, with an average -4.4% return and a 33% win rate. This asymmetry suggests a strategy of accumulating near 2.53 USDT while reducing exposure near 2.65 USDT could be profitable over the long term. The recent price action aligns with this dynamic, making the 2.529 level a key area to watch for potential reversal signals.