Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT)

• NEAR/USDT fell to 2.748 amid a bearish reversal from 2.82, with volume spiking during the 17:15–19:45 ET sell-off.
• RSI dropped below 30 into oversold territory, but failed to trigger a rebound, suggesting weak buyer participation.
• Bollinger Band contraction occurred pre-12:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke below the 2.80 support cluster.
• Volume distribution skewed heavily toward bearish candles, especially between 20:00 and 23:00 ET.
• Fibonacci 61.8% level at 2.756 may serve as a near-term floor, with a potential retest of the 2.78–2.80 cluster expected.

NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) opened at 2.82 on 2025-09-13 12:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of 2.748 before closing at 2.748 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14. The total traded volume over the 24-hour window was 7,619,221.9, while the total notional turnover amounted to 21,558,609.3 USDT. Price action suggests bearish momentum with strong downward bias.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels have formed at 2.748 (recent low), 2.76 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement), and 2.78 (prior consolidation zone), with 2.809 acting as a short-term resistance. Notable bearish candlestick patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern at 2.81–2.77 and a hanging man at 2.804–2.799, signaling potential exhaustion of buyers. A doji near 2.783 indicates indecision at that level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both crossed below the price action during the midday sell-off, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA stands at approximately 2.81, the 100-period MA at 2.815, and the 200-period MA near 2.82, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias as price remains below all key MAs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and the signal line crossed it during the sell-off, reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI fell to below 30, indicating oversold conditions, yet the asset failed to rebound significantly, suggesting weak buying pressure. This could either signal exhaustion or a potential bounce near key supports, but without a strong reversal candle, further downside is likely.

The RSI and MACD indicators align with the bearish price action, but the lack of a strong bounce in oversold territory raises the likelihood of a continuation of the downtrend. A failure to reclaim 2.78–2.80 could lead to a test of the 2.74–2.75 level.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed contraction prior to 12:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke lower. Price closed near the lower band, indicating heightened volatility and a possible continuation of the bearish move. If the bands continue to widen, it may confirm the breakdown as a high-probability move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 17:15–19:45 ET sell-off, with the most bearish candle occurring at 17:15 ET where 548,652.3 NEAR changed hands. This volume spike coincided with a sharp drop from 2.802 to 2.77, reinforcing the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover also increased during this period, showing strong participation. However, the volume distribution post-20:00 ET remained relatively low, suggesting exhaustion rather than aggressive selling.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high of 2.82 and low of 2.748, the 61.8% retracement level is at 2.756, which is currently acting as a potential support. If price tests and holds at this level, it could trigger a short-term bounce. However, if the 2.748 level breaks, the next Fibonacci target would be at 2.740–2.735.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and key Fibonacci levels identified, a potential backtesting strategy could involve placing a short entry near 2.78–2.80 with a stop loss above 2.82. A profit target could be set near 2.74–2.75, aligning with the 61.8% retracement. This approach would rely on the continuation of the current bearish momentum and the failure of price to retest and close above the 2.80 resistance zone. If successful, the strategy could be optimized for similar setups in future 15-minute sell-offs, especially during periods of high volatility and divergence in volume and price.