Market Overview: NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) — 24-Hour Price Action Summary

• NEARUSDT rallied to a 24-hour high of $3.153 amid strong midday volume.
• Price consolidated between $3.02 and $3.06 post-breakout, with a bearish close on declining turnover.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions during the high, suggesting potential near-term pullback.
• Volatility expanded with price testing the 1.618 Fib level from the prior 24-hour swing.
• Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting heightened volatility and indecision in the final hours.

Market Summary

NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) opened at $2.888 on 2025-10-04 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $3.153 by 07:30 ET, and closed at $3.064 as of 2025-10-05 12:00 ET. The pair traded between $2.888 and $3.153, with a total 24-hour volume of 13.4 million NEAR and a notional turnover of $39.4 million. The price action featured strong momentum and volatility, but ended in consolidation as bearish momentum emerged.

Structure & Formations

The NEARUSDT chart displayed a bullish breakout above key resistance at $3.035, followed by a test of $3.153 during midday trading. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near the 24-hour high at $3.153, suggesting possible near-term exhaustion. A doji formed near $3.045 late in the session, highlighting indecision and a potential turning point for the next 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs were both bullish, supporting price as it pushed toward the high of $3.153. The daily chart shows the 50-period SMA at $2.98, 100-period at $2.89, and 200-period at $2.76, all indicating a strong bullish bias. Price remains comfortably above all key moving averages, reinforcing the bullish narrative.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero at midday and pushed higher, confirming the bullish move toward $3.153. However, the RSI hit overbought territory above 75, suggesting a possible pause or pullback. A bearish divergence emerged in the final hours, with RSI peaking as price continued lower, signaling caution ahead.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the surge to $3.153, reflecting heightened volatility. The price closed near the upper band at $3.064, which is typically a bearish signal unless accompanied by strong volume. The narrowing bands at the end of the session indicate a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakout phase, particularly during the candle that closed at $3.146. However, volume dropped sharply during the pullback in the final hours, which contrasts with the falling price and suggests potential bearish exhaustion. Notional turnover peaked at $1.3 million during the high and fell to $0.3 million by the close, signaling a loss of bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

NEARUSDT tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.035 from its 24-hour swing high and retreated, indicating strong support. A potential pullback may see the price test the 38.2% retracement at $2.965, which aligns with the 50-period SMA and could act as a key area of interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long positions when price closes above the 20-period SMA on the 15-minute chart and the RSI crosses above 50, confirming bullish momentum. A stop-loss is placed just below the most recent swing low, with a target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level. During this 24-hour window, this condition was triggered twice, with the second entry aligning with the midday breakout and showing a favorable risk-reward profile.