Market Overview: NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

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• NEAR/USDT declined by 6.3% over the past 24 hours, testing key support levels near $3.10.
• Price broke below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volatility remains elevated, with wide Bollinger Bands and a 15-minute RSI reading near oversold territory.
• Notional turnover surged after the 20:00 ET dip, confirming bearish sentiment.
• A long lower shadow on the final candle suggests potential near-term stabilization.

NEARUSDT opened at $3.201 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.101 the following day. The 24-hour high was $3.215, while the low reached $3.090. Total volume was 5.96 million NEAR, with a notional turnover of approximately $18.99 million, based on the 15-minute OHLCV data.

The price formation showed a strong bearish trend, breaking through the 20-period moving average and establishing a downward momentum. The 50-period line on the 15-minute chart provided a key resistance level that was decisively rejected. Notable candlestick patterns include a hanging man near $3.165 and a long lower shadow at close, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels are forming around $3.10–3.12, reinforced by the last few candles showing rejection near those levels. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $3.155, indicating a shift in sentiment from bullish to bearish. The price action also showed a strong doji near $3.198, suggesting indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, confirming a short-term bearish trend. The 50-period MA is now acting as a resistance level at approximately $3.175. For the daily chart, the 200-period MA is currently around $3.21, which could serve as a psychological resistance if the price retraces.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line, signaling bearish momentum. The histogram has been shrinking slightly, indicating some exhaustion in the downward move. The RSI has entered oversold territory, currently reading in the 28–30 range, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded notably after the 19:00 ET candle, with the Bollinger Bands widening as price swung between $3.145 and $3.198. The price currently resides near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions and the potential for a mean reversion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume picked up significantly between 19:00 ET and 21:00 ET, especially during the candle that closed at $3.145. The notional turnover peaked at around $1.5 million during the sharp drop to $3.095. Price and volume appear to be in alignment, with declining prices coinciding with increasing turnover, confirming bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent high of $3.215 to the low of $3.090 is near $3.135. The price is currently below that level, indicating a deeper correction is in progress. The 38.2% level at $3.155 has been tested multiple times and continues to act as resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a mean-reversion strategy based on Bollinger Band contractions and RSI divergence appears viable in this market condition. If the price remains near the lower band and the RSI rebounds from oversold levels, a short-term bounce is likely. A backtest would require entry signals when the RSI crosses above 30 and volume increases with a bullish divergence, targeting a 5–7% retracement before re-evaluating.