Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) — 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-04

• NEARUSDT fell 5.7% in 24 hours, closing near a recent support level.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, but bearish momentum persists.
• Volatility increased with price dropping to a 24-hour low of $2.884.
• A large-volume bearish reversal was observed around 15:30 ET on 2025-10-03.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, suggesting continued weakness.

Market Overview

NEARUSDT opened at $3.017 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.890 by the same time on October 4. The pair reached a high of $3.082 and a low of $2.884. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 18,366,984.9 USD, with notional turnover reflecting a significant decline in bullish participation.

The price action formed a clear bearish trend, with a large bearish candle on October 3 at 15:30 ET confirming a breakdown below prior support. Key support was identified near $2.92–$2.95, while resistance was observed at $3.03–$3.05. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared on October 4 around 15:30 ET, suggesting further downward momentum. Additionally, a doji candle at 12:00 ET on October 4 indicated indecision after the initial bearish move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a strong bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. The 50-period SMA was at $2.99, and the 20-period SMA was at $3.01, with price remaining well below both. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period SMAs were in a bearish alignment, with price failing to cross above the 50-day line.

Momentum and Volatility

The 14-period RSI fell into oversold territory, hitting a low of 28 by October 4, but failed to spark a bullish bounce. This indicated a lack of immediate buying interest despite the technical signal. MACD remained bearish, with a negative histogram and the MACD line below the signal line, showing continued downward momentum.

Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate expansion, with price near the lower band, suggesting volatility has increased. This setup typically favors continuation patterns unless a strong reversal occurs.

Volume and Turnover

Volume surged during the critical bearish reversal at 15:30 ET, confirming the breakdown below key support. The notional turnover peaked at around $400,000 during that period, indicating heightened bearish participation. Price and turnover moved in the same direction, validating the strength of the downward move. However, the volume profile also showed declining buying interest during the final hours of the 24-hour window.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the major 15-minute swing (from $3.082 to $2.884) showed the price finding support near the 61.8% level at $2.93. For the daily move from $3.082 to $2.884, the 61.8% retracement was at $2.96, and the price appeared to reject this level during the last 6 hours. This suggests that $2.93–$2.96 could act as a near-term range for consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves entering a short position on a confirmed bearish reversal candle (such as a bearish engulfing or a long lower shadow) when it occurs below a key support level, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the reversal candle and a take-profit at the nearest Fibonacci level or prior swing low. This setup aligns with the observed price action on October 3–4, particularly around the 15:30 ET candle, which formed a strong bearish reversal below $3.00. A similar strategy could be tested on historical NEARUSDT data to determine its robustness in trending conditions.