Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) on 2025-11-05

• Price declined sharply in early ET hours before consolidating near 1.85.
• RSI approached oversold territory, but momentum remains bearish.
• Volume surged during the drop but has since subsided.

NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) opened at 1.884 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and dropped to a 24-hour low of 1.72 before closing at 1.881 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The total volume over 24 hours was 49,129,445.8 units, with a turnover of approximately $88,249,299. Price action appears to show bearish exhaustion after a sharp rebound from the 1.72 support.

Structure & Formations

Price fell below the 1.85 support level during the session but found a floor near 1.72, forming a potential short-term base. A bullish reversal pattern emerged near 1.85, with a large bullish engulfing candle closing at 1.881. However, the pattern has yet to show strong follow-through. Key resistance now sits near 1.885, while 1.85 remains a key support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average has crossed above the 50-period line as price consolidates, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains above the 100 and 200-period lines, indicating a bearish bias in the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned positive in recent hours, aligning with the bullish engulfing candle. However, RSI remains in bearish territory, hovering just below the 50 level and indicating that the rally may be running out of steam. A move above 60 would be needed for confirmation of renewed strength.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded as the price fell to 1.72 and then rebounded. Price has traded near the upper band in recent hours, but the wide band width suggests that a period of consolidation could follow unless a breakout occurs.

Volume & Turnover

The most significant volume spike occurred around 20:30 ET, as price dropped from 1.783 to 1.72 on heavy trading. Since then, volume has declined, which could signal a lack of conviction in the rally. Turnover has also dropped, aligning with the lower volume and suggesting a potential pause in momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price has retested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.72–1.881 move at around 1.84. A break above 1.885 could see it retest the 1.90–1.91 level. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level is near 1.86, where recent consolidation has occurred.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the "Bullish Engulfing @ Support" pattern over NEARUSDT between 2022 and 2025 yielded 28 qualifying signals but showed no statistical out-performance over the benchmark. The average return was negative across all holding periods—1-day (-0.69%), 3-day (-4.12%), 10-day (-9.41%), and 30-day (-18.96%)—suggesting that the pattern failed to trigger meaningful bullish momentum or mean reversion. Given the bearish response to these setups, a cautious approach is warranted. A trade simulation was not possible due to a price-feed error, but the event-study results imply that this strategy could underperform without additional safeguards such as tight stops or a robust alternative signal filter.