Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) – 2025-10-06

• NEAR/USDT declined sharply in early hours but recovered to end near the 24-hour low.
• RSI and MACD show oversold conditions, hinting at potential near-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded during the selloff, with price falling below the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart.
• Volume spiked during the 12:00–13:00 ET recovery phase, suggesting accumulation.
• Price remains within the descending triangle pattern formed over the past 72 hours.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05, NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) opened at $3.023, hit a high of $3.06, fell to a low of $2.934, and closed at $3.041 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-06. Total volume over 24 hours was 21.9 million NEAR, with a notional turnover of $64.3 million.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action reveals a bearish engulfing pattern early in the session, followed by a strong rebound from key support near $2.95. The price appears to be consolidating within a descending triangle, with a key resistance at $3.06 and support at $2.94. A doji formed at 16:45 ET as price approached $2.942, indicating indecision and a potential reversal setup. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly during the early selloff, suggesting short-term bearish momentum may have peaked.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above the 20-period MA but below the 50-period MA, indicating mixed momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 100-period and 200-period MAs, reinforcing a slightly bearish bias. The price is approaching the 50-period MA on the daily chart, which could serve as a short-term resistance or support level depending on the context of volume and momentum.

MACD & RSI

The RSI bottomed at 24 near $2.94 and has rebounded to 44, suggesting short-term oversold conditions may be reversing. The MACD crossed the signal line from below in the early morning, signaling a potential bullish crossover. However, the histogram remains weak, indicating that momentum is still limited.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the early selloff, with price hitting the lower Bollinger band at $2.94. The bands have since narrowed, indicating a period of consolidation. The price is currently trading near the middle band, which suggests it may be entering a phase of higher uncertainty or decision-making.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff in the early hours, peaking at 759,891 NEAR at 00:15 ET. However, the price did not form a clear bottom, suggesting a potential false breakout. Turnover increased during the recovery phase, with notable volume at 16:45 ET (118k NEAR) and 19:30 ET (131k NEAR). The divergence between price and volume during the selloff is a warning sign for continuation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key swing from $3.06 to $2.94, price is currently testing the 61.8% retracement level near $3.03. A break above $3.05 would target the 78.6% level at $3.07, while a retest below $3.01 could confirm a bearish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a long position on a bullish MACD crossover while price is above the 20-period MA and RSI is above 35. A stop-loss could be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3.01. A profit target of $3.08 aligns with the upper Bollinger band and key resistance. This approach would validate a combination of momentum and structure indicators, offering a probabilistic edge in a low-volatility environment.