Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) on 2025-10-03

• NEAR/USDT rose from $2.85 to $3.017 in 24 hours, showing strong bullish momentum.
• Price tested and broke through key resistance levels near $2.95 and $3.00.
• Volatility expanded significantly after 19:00 ET with a surge in turnover.
• MACD and RSI showed increasing momentum with no overbought signals yet.
• Bollinger Bands showed price drifting above the upper band in the final hours.

24-Hour Summary

On 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) opened at $2.851, reached a high of $3.02, a low of $2.851, and closed at $3.017. Over the 24-hour period, the pair traded with a total volume of 24.37 million NEAR and a notional turnover of $69.28 million. The price action reflects a significant rally from late evening to midday.

Structure & Formations

Price displayed a strong bullish bias with a series of higher highs and higher lows after 17:00 ET. A key breakout occurred at $2.95, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern. A doji formed near $2.966 at 21:45 ET, suggesting temporary indecision. Subsequently, the asset pushed through $3.00 with a strong green candle at 15:45 ET, closing the session near the upper end of the range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming the uptrend. The 50-period SMA was at approximately $2.93, and the 20-period SMA at around $2.95. On a daily scale, the price is above the 50-day SMA (~$2.89), but still below the 200-day SMA (~$2.81), suggesting a medium-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above zero and remained positive throughout the session, indicating sustained bullish momentum. RSI climbed into the 60–65 range, showing strength without reaching overbought territory. This suggests the rally has room to continue but could pause if RSI approaches 70.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands reflected an increase in volatility in the last 4–5 hours of the session, with price moving above the upper band on multiple occasions. The width of the bands expanded from a narrow contraction at 12:00 ET to a wide range by 16:00 ET, indicating a potential continuation of trend formation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the critical breakout moments, notably at 21:15 ET with a $1.27 million notional volume and again at 15:45 ET with $1.5 million in turnover. The price and volume aligned, confirming the strength of the rally. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute rally from $2.85 to $3.02, the 61.8% retracement level at $2.94 was tested but broken. The 100% target level at $3.017, reached by the close, was confirmed by volume and price action. For the daily swing from $2.81 to $2.956, the 61.8% retracement at $2.89 is currently acting as support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering long positions when NEAR/USDT closes above its 50-period SMA and RSI crosses above 50. A trailing stop-loss is triggered below the 20-period SMA or on a RSI drop below 40. Given today’s behavior—closing above both SMAs and RSI above 60—the strategy would have entered a long at 17:00–19:00 ET. With the trailing stop intact and current momentum strong, the strategy aligns well with the recent price trajectory. Initial targets align with the observed $3.00–$3.02 level.