Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) as of 2025-09-22

• Price dropped sharply from $3.16 to $2.75 within 9 hours, indicating strong bearish momentum.
• Volume surged over 400% during the downtrend, confirming bearish sentiment.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.84 marked a key psychological threshold during the selloff.
• RSI and MACD both signaled oversold conditions at the session low, suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands tightened prior to the selloff, indicating potential for a volatility expansion to follow.

The NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) pair opened at $3.101 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.877 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The 24-hour high reached $3.161, and the low hit $2.753. Total traded volume was 10,325,869.3, with a notional turnover of approximately $29,200,541.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the last 24 hours displayed a clear bearish bias, with a sharp decline from the 24-hour high of $3.161 to a low of $2.753. A notable bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 06:15 ET, where a large bearish candle consumed the previous bullish session, confirming a shift in sentiment. A key support level emerged at $2.85, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the recent high to low. A bullish hammer candle formed at $2.753, suggesting potential rejection at the lower end of the range. Resistance levels to watch are at $2.90 (61.8% retracement) and $2.95, where prior price clusters indicate potential retesting.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20-period and 50-period on the 15-minute chart) have rapidly diverged downward, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages both crossed below the 200-day line, forming a bearish “death cross” formation, which historically has been associated with prolonged downtrends. The price is currently below all key moving averages, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session, confirming bearish momentum, and has remained in negative territory throughout. The RSI indicator has spent most of the session below 30, signaling oversold conditions, with a potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI has not yet generated a clear bullish divergence, and the lack of strong upward momentum suggests that the oversold bounce may be limited in scope.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted significantly between 00:45 ET and 06:00 ET, indicating a period of consolidation before the sharp selloff. As the price dropped through the lower band, volatility expanded, reinforcing the bearish move. The current price is trading just above the lower Bollinger Band, which may act as a temporary support if the trend stabilizes. A sustained break below the lower band could signal further downside, but traders should watch for a potential reversal within the band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the selloff, particularly between 00:45 ET and 02:30 ET, as the price dropped from $3.138 to $3.024 and again around 06:15 ET when the price hit the session low. Notional turnover also saw a significant rise during this period, confirming the bearish move. A divergence between price and volume was not observed, suggesting that the move was backed by substantial selling pressure rather than a fakeout. However, volume has declined in the last few hours, which may hint at a potential pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent 15-minute swing (from $3.161 to $2.753), key levels include 38.2% at $2.974, 61.8% at $2.841, and 100% at $2.753. The 61.8% level was briefly tested but failed to hold, and price continued lower. On the daily chart, the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the broader move from $3.15 to $2.75 has now become a potential support at $2.85, which has already been tested once. A failure to hold this level could push price toward the 100% retracement at $2.75.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long positions when the price bounces above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2.84, with a stop-loss placed just below the 100% level at $2.75. This setup would aim to capture a short-term rebound in a bearish environment. Given the RSI’s oversold reading and the hammer candle at the session low, this strategy could work over the next 4–6 hours. However, the bearish death cross on the daily moving averages suggests that any bullish bounce may be short-lived, making this a high-risk, short-term trade.