Market Overview for NEAR Protocol/Tether (NEARUSDT) – 2025-09-18

• Price surged from 2.668 to 2.903 on high-volume bullish momentum.
• Strong breakout above 2.885 with key resistance now at 2.90–2.92.
• RSI and MACD in overbought territory, signaling potential pullback.
• Bollinger Bands show increasing volatility with price near the upper band.
• Volume and turnover confirm bullish sentiment with no major divergence.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-17, NEARUSDT opened at 2.668 and closed at 2.903 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. The 24-hour high reached 2.903 while the low was 2.648. Total volume was 10.17 million NEAR with a notional turnover of $29.05 million.

The price action shows a strong bullish trend over the last 24 hours, driven by sustained buying pressure. A key support level appears to have formed around 2.80–2.82, where the price paused multiple times before resuming its upward movement. Resistance levels are evident at 2.90, 2.92, and 2.94, with the latter showing the most immediate challenge. A large bullish engulfing pattern formed near 2.758–2.767, indicating a shift in momentum. Additionally, a long lower wick around 2.873–2.893 suggests a rejection of bearish pressure.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are currently in a bullish crossover, supporting the upward bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-day moving averages remain in an ascending alignment, indicating a longer-term bullish trend. The MACD line crossed above the signal line with increasing histogram height, affirming bullish momentum. The RSI approached overbought territory around 72–75, suggesting a possible near-term pullback or consolidation.

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the upward move, showing heightened volatility. The price has spent most of the period near or above the upper band, indicating overbought conditions and a potential for mean reversion. The standard deviation has increased from 0.012 to 0.016, confirming the widening band.

Volume has remained consistently above average, especially during key price breaks above 2.885 and 2.902. Notional turnover spiked during the 03:15–03:30 and 08:30–09:00 ET periods, aligning with the most significant price surges. No major divergence between price and volume has been observed, suggesting continued bullish sentiment.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the swing low at 2.648 and the swing high at 2.903 show key levels at 2.78 (38.2%), 2.81 (50%), and 2.85 (61.8%). The price has tested these levels multiple times, with a successful break above 2.903 confirming bullish continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy suggests entering long positions on NEARUSDT when the 20-period and 50-period moving averages cross above on the 15-minute chart, and when the RSI breaks above 55 from below. A stop-loss is placed at 1.5% below the entry point, and a take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci level. The hypothesis is that the current upward momentum, reinforced by bullish indicators and volume confirmation, is likely to continue at least in the short term. The strategy would have entered positions during the 03:15–04:15 ET and 07:30–08:30 ET surges, aligning with key support-to-resistance breaks.