Market Overview for Across Protocol/Tether (ACXUSDT)

• Price drifted higher during a volatile 24-hour period, with a 0.83% gain from 0.1191 to 0.1202.
• Strong volume surges at 18:45 ET and 03:15 ET signaled key turning points.
• RSI hovered near overbought levels, but lacked follow-through bullish confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, suggesting rising volatility.
• No clear reversal patterns emerged, though a bearish divergence in price and volume is notable.

Across Protocol/Tether (ACXUSDT) opened at 0.1191 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1236 before closing at 0.1202 on 2025-10-03 at the same time. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 19,672,309.8 and a notional turnover of $2,414,494.83. Price action showed a distinct intra-day shift from bullish to consolidating behavior, with key support and resistance levels becoming evident.

Structure & Formations

The daily chart revealed a strong resistance cluster around 0.1234–0.1236, where price stalled multiple times. A clear rejection was observed at this level, with bearish spinning tops and a long-legged doji appearing at 0.1236, suggesting indecision among bulls. On the lower timeframe, an engulfing pattern emerged at 03:15 ET, confirming a short-term rebound. However, the lack of follow-through volume and the failure to break above 0.1236 implies the uptrend remains under pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bullish crossover, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. However, this was undermined by the 50-period moving average on the daily chart, which acted as a key resistance at 0.1210. Price struggled to maintain above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which are currently at 0.1206 and 0.1199, respectively. This divergence may hint at a longer-term consolidation or a potential reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover on the 15-minute chart, aligning with the recent rally but failing to maintain momentum on the daily timeframe. RSI peaked near 70 during the afternoon and evening, suggesting overbought conditions. However, a bearish divergence emerged with volume, as higher highs failed to bring proportionate buying interest. This divergence raises caution about a potential correction.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands exhibited a significant expansion during the session, with price breaking above the upper band and briefly touching it at 0.1236. This suggests a period of heightened volatility and aggressive trading. Price has since returned to the center of the bands, indicating a potential re-entry into consolidation. The next key test will be whether price can sustain above the mid-band (0.1215) without breaking higher.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 18:45 ET (196,214.3 volume) and again at 03:15 ET (158,518.8 volume), coinciding with significant price moves. The volume on the afternoon rally was strong, but not enough to break above the key resistance. The notional turnover also showed a peak during these times, confirming the intensity of the moves. However, a bearish divergence is evident in the late session, where price moved higher while volume declined, suggesting weakening conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1196 to 0.1236, key retracement levels at 0.1214 (38.2%) and 0.1205 (61.8%) have acted as psychological supports. Price is currently hovering near 0.1202, just below the 61.8% level, which could serve as a potential pivot point. A break below this level could trigger further tests of 0.1199 (23.6%) and 0.1196 (key support), while a sustained move above 0.1205 may rekindle bullish sentiment.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when price closes below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss just above the 0.1205 level and a target at the 0.1196 support. This aligns with the current technical setup, where overbought conditions, bearish divergence, and declining volume suggest a higher probability of a pullback. If successful, this strategy could capture a portion of the expected retracement without being overly aggressive. However, traders should remain cautious of unexpected volatility or macro events that could disrupt this pattern.