Market Overview: Across Protocol/Tether (ACXUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-17

• Price dropped from 0.086 to 0.0793, with bearish momentum intensifying late in the session.
• Volume surged over 490k on the key reversal down, confirming bearish sentiment.
• RSI oversold conditions and Bollinger Band contraction suggest potential for a bounce.
• Multiple engulfing patterns and Fibonacci support levels at 0.0795–0.0803 indicate possible near-term turning points.
• Divergence between price and volume during late hours raises uncertainty in continuation.

Across Protocol/Tether (ACXUSDT) opened at 0.086 on 2025-10-16 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0866, and a low of 0.0777 before closing at 0.0813 on 2025-10-17 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a 24-hour volume of approximately 498.1k units and a notional turnover of over $40.7k, indicating moderate trading activity amid a sharp bearish trend.

The candlestick pattern suggests a strong bearish shift, particularly after a key reversal down pattern formed around 06:45 ET when the price fell from 0.0851 to 0.0831 on heavy volume. This was followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming at 07:15 ET. These patterns, combined with a 20-period EMA crossing below the 50-period EMA, reinforced the bearish bias. The 50-period EMA is currently at 0.0825, while the 20-period sits near 0.0811, suggesting further downside potential in the short term.

Momentum indicators also supported the bearish case. RSI dipped below 30 during the morning hours, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to show a convincing reversal. MACD turned negative and remained in bearish territory, with a narrowing histogram. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction early in the session, followed by a widening as volatility increased in the late hours. Price was consistently trading near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce from this level in the near term.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the 24-hour swing from 0.0866 to 0.0777 showed key support at 0.0795 (23.6%) and 0.0790 (38.2%), which may offer temporary support for buyers. Volume spiked during the key bearish move but remained lower during the final recovery phase, suggesting weak conviction in a reversal. A retest of these Fibonacci levels may trigger a short-term bounce, but a break below 0.0790 could extend the trend lower.

Backtest Hypothesis: Given the prevalence of bearish engulfing and key reversal patterns observed, a backtest could be structured around a short strategy triggered on bearish engulfing confirmation candles. The exit rule is critical for performance; for example, closing on the next day’s close would allow for capturing full bearish momentum, whereas using a stop-loss (e.g., 2–3%) could limit downside risk if a bullish reversal occurs. Further, incorporating the 20/50 EMA crossover as an entry refinement and RSI oversold levels as potential reversal filters may improve accuracy. With the correct ticker confirmation and exit rules, a backtest from 2022 to 2025 can help assess the viability of this pattern-based strategy.