Market Overview for Prom/Tether (PROMUSDT)

• PROMUSDT traded in a tight range for most of the 24-hour period, with a late surge to a new high of 9.998
• Volume spiked significantly in the early hours of 2025-10-28, especially during the 05:15–05:30 ET window
• RSI and MACD suggest mixed momentum with overbought readings at the peak but no clear divergence
• Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before the breakout, indicating low volatility followed by a sharp move
• A potential bearish doji formed at the 05:30–05:45 ET window, suggesting a potential reversal point

Price Action and Opening Summary

PROMUSDT opened at 9.538 on 2025-10-27 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 9.998 before closing at 9.731 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-28. The 24-hour period saw total trading volume of approximately 60,095.18 units and a notional turnover of ~$578,000, indicating increased interest during the late-night and early-morning hours. Price action remained largely within a defined range until a sharp breakout in the early hours.

Structure and Key Levels

The 24-hour chart showed several key support and resistance levels. Notable resistance emerged around 9.80–9.90 and 9.90–9.998, the latter of which was briefly broken before a pullback. Key support levels were observed at 9.70 and 9.60. A bearish doji formed near 9.915, suggesting potential bearish pressure after a sharp rally. Additionally, a series of bullish and bearish engulfing patterns were visible during the 21:00–22:30 ET and 05:00–05:30 ET windows, respectively.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

Short-term momentum, as measured by the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, showed a rapid shift from bearish to bullish during the breakout phase. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA in the 05:15–05:30 ET window, forming a potential golden cross. The RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) at the high of 9.998, and MACD showed a narrowing histogram followed by a positive divergence, suggesting the momentum could stall after the peak.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands reflected a period of low volatility before the breakout, with the bands narrowing between 04:00–04:45 ET. As price surged past 9.90, the bands widened sharply, indicating increased volatility. Price briefly exceeded the upper band at 9.998, suggesting a short-term overbought condition. The lower band remained around 9.70 as a key support area.

Fibonacci Retracements and Reversal Cues

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 04:15–05:15 ET rally showed a potential reversal at 38.2% (9.891) and 61.8% (9.813). A bearish reversal doji formed around 9.915, aligning with the 38.2% level. The pullback following this doji suggests that 9.813 could be a key level to watch in the next 24 hours. Daily Fibonacci levels also highlighted 9.759 as a critical area for potential consolidation.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volume spiked sharply during the 05:15–05:30 ET and 21:15–21:30 ET windows, coinciding with key price movements. The 05:15–05:30 ET surge in volume was particularly significant, with over $57,000 of turnover occurring at the peak. Notably, volume decreased after the doji at 9.915, suggesting waning bullish momentum. A divergence between price and volume at this point further supports a bearish reversal bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a bearish doji at 9.915 and a corresponding drop in volume, a potential backtest strategy could explore the effectiveness of the doji-star pattern as a reversal signal. Using the close price as the data source, a strategy could be designed to enter a short position on confirmation of a doji-star and exit either after a fixed number of days (e.g., 5) or upon a bullish doji or trend reversal signal. Additionally, a stop-loss could be set 3% above the entry point, and a take-profit target at 5%. Testing this strategy on the PROMUSDT pair from 2022–01–01 through today could provide valuable insight into the predictive power of the doji-star in volatile crypto markets.