Market Overview for Prom/Tether (PROMUSDT) - 2025-10-10

• PROM/USDT fell sharply overnight into early trading, breaking key support at $10.20.
• Price tested a 61.8% Fibonacci level at $9.89, showing a bearish continuation signal.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI moved into oversold territory below 30, hinting at potential short-term rebound.
• MACD crossed bearishly, with negative divergence reinforcing downward bias.

PROMUSDT opened at $10.252 on 2025-10-09 at 16:00 ET and closed at $9.957 at 16:00 ET the following day. The pair reached a 24-hour high of $10.456 and a low of $9.637. Total volume was 196,468.87, with a notional turnover of $1,961,463.80 (based on volume × price).

The market structure for PROMUSDT over the past 24 hours shows a clear bearish bias. Key support levels were tested at $10.20, $9.95, and $9.89, with the final close resting near $9.957. Notably, a long bearish candle formed during the 11:15–11:30 ET window, where the price fell nearly $9.70 over 15 minutes, closing at $9.726. This candlestick displayed a high wick and a sharp close, suggesting strong selling pressure. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed around the $10.20–$10.24 range, reinforcing the downward move.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a clear bearish crossover, with the 20-period MA below the 50-period MA during the selloff. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, indicating medium-term bearish momentum. The price remains well below both the 50-day and 200-day averages, signaling a continuation of bearish sentiment.

MACD remained negative throughout the period, with the line below the signal line and the histogram expanding in the negative zone, confirming bearish momentum. RSI hit a low of 27 during the selloff, entering oversold territory, which suggests a potential short-term bounce but not necessarily a reversal. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction during the morning hours, followed by a sharp expansion as volatility spiked. Price closed near the lower band, indicating continued bearish pressure and potential for further downside unless buyers step in.

Volume spiked during the late-night selloff, particularly between 11:15 and 11:30 ET, as the price dropped sharply to $9.726. This divergence in volume and price movement was consistent with strong bearish conviction. Notional turnover also spiked during that window, reinforcing the validity of the sell-off. Fibonacci retracement levels at $9.95 (61.8%) and $9.89 (78.6%) were tested, with the price failing to hold above $9.95, suggesting further bearish potential toward $9.79 or $9.63 as the next support zones.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves a mean-reversion approach triggered by RSI entering oversold territory (<30) and MACD divergence. Based on the 15-minute data, a signal was generated at $9.726 when RSI hit 27 and MACD showed bearish divergence. A short position with a stop at $9.81 would have been triggered, with a target at $9.63. Given the volume confirmation and Fibonacci levels, this would likely have resulted in a successful trade. A buy signal, however, would not be viable until RSI breaks above 50 and price retests key support levels with bullish confirmation. The strategy appears effective for shorter timeframes, but caution is advised given the overall bearish trend.