Market Overview for Prom/Tether (PROMUSDT) on 2025-10-08

• Prom/Tether (PROMUSDT) fell below key support at 10.20 amid a 4.4% decline on heavy volume.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 10.25 as momentum shifted to oversold levels on RSI.
• Volatility expanded in the final 6 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening and price hitting a 24-hour low at 10.01.
• Turnover remained elevated during the decline, confirming bearish conviction rather than divergence.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest 10.13 as a potential near-term target if the current bearish trend continues.

PROMUSDT opened at 10.351 on October 7 at 16:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of 10.486 before closing at 10.064 at 12:00 ET on October 8. The price action saw a low of 10.019, with total volume of 126,880.01 and turnover of 1,268,393.35 USD. The bearish momentum accelerated in the latter half of the day, with a clear breakdown of prior support levels and increasing volatility.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a distinct bearish engulfing pattern at 10.25, following a failed attempt to retest the 10.25–10.27 consolidation zone. This pattern was preceded by a weak bullish reversal attempt at 10.20–10.24, which failed to hold. Key support levels at 10.20 and 10.15 were tested, with 10.10 now in focus. A potential test of the 10.10–10.15 range may offer a short-term floor if buying pressure emerges.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both dipped below the price, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMAs remain above the price, indicating a longer-term bearish trend. The current price action appears to align with the downward trend, with limited near-term potential for a reversal unless the price closes above the 50-period MA on the daily chart.

MACD & RSI

The RSI on the 15-minute chart hit an oversold level near 28 as the price approached 10.064, suggesting a possible near-term rebound. However, the MACD line crossed below the signal line in the morning session, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram showed a gradual widening of bearish divergence, with negative MACD bars increasing in magnitude as the price declined. The pair remains under downward pressure with no strong signs of reversal yet.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the last 6 hours, with the Bollinger Band width widening from 0.05 to 0.12. The price closed near the lower band at 10.064, which may offer a short-term floor. A rebound from this level could lead to a retest of the 10.10–10.15 range. A break above the middle band (around 10.20) would be needed to signal a potential reversal of the short-term downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 4,500 in the last 6 hours, coinciding with a sharp price drop. The highest hourly turnover occurred between 14:00 and 16:00 ET, with the 15-minute candle at 15:15 ET showing a turnover spike of $35,612.80. Notably, volume and price were aligned in the decline, reinforcing the bearish move rather than showing divergence. This suggests strong conviction among short sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 10.064–10.486 swing, the 61.8% level sits at 10.20, while the 38.2% level is at 10.27. These levels align with recent support and resistance zones. A bounce off 10.064 could test the 61.8% level, but a break below 10.019 would confirm a deeper decline toward the 10.10–10.15 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on short-term bearish setups using a combination of RSI divergence and Bollinger Band compression. Specifically, it looks for RSI entering oversold territory (below 30) following a period of low volatility (Bollinger Bands narrowing), confirming a potential reversal point. If this setup is identified early in a downtrend, as seen in the 15-minute chart during the 04:30–05:30 ET window, a short entry could be initiated with a stop-loss above the 20-period MA. Given the recent price action and alignment with the strategy’s criteria, this method may offer a high-probability trade in the near term.