Market Overview for Prom/Tether (PROMUSDT) on 2025-09-19

• Price declined from $10.652 to $9.963 before stabilizing near $10.08
• RSI signaled oversold levels, with potential for short-term rebound
• Volume surged in early ET hours before consolidating
• Bollinger Bands indicated increasing volatility during the 12-hour decline
• Fibonacci levels at $10.30 and $10.15 show possible resistance and support

The Prom/Tether (PROMUSDT) pair opened at $10.641 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $10.652, and fell to a low of $9.963 before closing at $10.08 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. Total volume amounted to 137,372.87, with a notional turnover of $1,363,467.87 over the 24-hour period. The market exhibited a bearish bias with clear support levels forming during the session.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, the price of PROMUSDT formed a bearish continuation pattern characterized by a sharp decline from $10.652 to $9.963. Key support levels appear to be forming around $10.15 and $10.08, with a potential resistance at $10.30. A notable doji formed near $10.08 around 14:45 ET, suggesting a temporary pause in the downward trend. However, the absence of strong bullish follow-through indicates further consolidation or a test of the next support level may occur.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages remain bearish, with the 20-period line closely tracking the 50-period line below the current price. This suggests a continuation of the bearish bias in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines are aligned in a descending trend, reinforcing the medium-term bearish outlook. A close above $10.30 could trigger a retest of the 50-period MA as potential support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the 12–16 ET window, aligning with the price decline. The RSI indicator hit oversold territory below 30 in the early hours of 2025-09-19, reaching as low as 27. This suggests that a short-term bounce may be in the cards, but only if volume and price can confirm a reversal. The divergence between RSI and price during the morning ET session hints at a potential reversal if buyers step in near $10.08.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened during the 12–18 ET window, reflecting increased volatility as the price fell from $10.652 to $9.963. The price has since consolidated near the lower band, indicating a potential support area. A break above the upper band would signal a possible short-term reversal, though this is unlikely without confirmation from volume and momentum indicators.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged early in the session during the sharp decline, with the most significant turnover occurring between 12:00–18:00 ET. The volume during this period was notably higher than the final 6 hours, during which the price consolidated. The turnover during the decline was $760,000, while the final 6 hours saw only $120,000 in turnover, indicating waning bearish momentum. A divergence between price and volume suggests that the move lower may have exhausted its immediate bearish energy.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $10.652 to $9.963 shows key levels at $10.30 (38.2%) and $10.15 (61.8%). The price briefly tested $10.30 during the morning ET rebound, indicating this level could serve as a dynamic support/resistance. If the price holds above $10.15, it could indicate a short-term floor, with potential for a bounce toward $10.30.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtesting strategy relies on a combination of RSI divergence and volume confirmation to identify short-term reversal opportunities. Specifically, the strategy enters a long position when RSI hits oversold levels (below 30) and volume increases by at least 20% compared to the previous 15-minute candle. It exits when the price breaks above the 50-period moving average or closes below the entry price after 2 hours. Given the recent RSI divergence and volume surge near $10.08, this strategy could have captured a potential rebound in the 2025-09-19 session. The success of the strategy would depend on the ability to confirm the reversal with both volume and price action.