Market Overview: Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) – October 6, 2025

• Price closed higher at 5.08, up from 4.98, with a 24-hour range of 4.91–5.08.
• RSI remains neutral, hovering near 50, indicating no clear overbought/oversold pressure.
• Volatility spiked midday due to a sharp rebound, with volume surging to over 8,500 units in the final hours.
• Bollinger Bands expanded, indicating increased market participation and potential for continuation.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed early in the morning, suggesting potential for a near-term breakout.

The Polymesh/Turkish Lira pair (POLYXTRY) opened at 4.98 on October 5 at 12:00 ET and closed at 5.08 on October 6 at 12:00 ET, recording a 24-hour high of 5.1 and a low of 4.91. Total volume amounted to 132,035.2 units, while notional turnover totaled 669,465.6 TRY. The price action suggests an emerging bullish bias driven by early-morning volume and a strong close near the upper end of the Bollinger Band.

Over the past 24 hours, POLYXTRY formed a bullish engulfing pattern after the 00:30 ET candle on October 6, indicating a potential reversal from a prior bearish trend. This was followed by a sharp rebound and a continuation of the upward move. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart now sits below the price, suggesting a short-term bullish momentum, while the 20-period line is crossing above it, reinforcing the uptrend. Key support levels include 4.93 and 4.91, with resistance now at 5.08 and possibly extending to 5.1.

MACD shows positive divergence with the price, as the histogram expanded during the final push to 5.08, indicating strong bullish momentum. The RSI remains in the neutral range, oscillating between 50 and 55, suggesting that the pair may not be overbought yet. Volatility expanded during the midday surge, as evidenced by wider Bollinger Bands, and the price closed near the upper band, signaling a potential continuation of the upward move. Fibonacci retracements from the recent low at 4.91 to the high at 5.1 indicate key levels at 38.2% (5.02) and 61.8% (4.95), with the price currently at 5.08—just beyond 38.2%.

Looking ahead, the pair may test the next resistance level at 5.1 and face a critical decision point based on volume and price confirmation. A sustained close above 5.08 could open the door to higher targets, while a pullback below 4.93 could signal a short-term correction. Investors should remain cautious about divergence between price and volume and monitor key Fibonacci levels for potential trading opportunities.

Backtest Hypothesis: The described strategy involves entering long positions at the close of bullish engulfing patterns, with a stop-loss set below the recent swing low and a target of 38.2% Fibonacci level. Given the pattern formed at 00:30 ET on October 6 and the subsequent move to 5.08, a backtest would likely have generated a long signal with a favorable risk/reward profile. The strategy could be tested further by evaluating performance across multiple bullish engulfing patterns in the preceding 30 days.