Market Overview for Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY)

• Price surged to 3.95, but closed near 3.97 amid mixed volume and consolidation.
• Key support at 3.91 was tested twice, while resistance at 3.99 showed repeated rejection.
• RSI overbought conditions flagged during the early session, suggesting potential pullback risk.
• Volatility spiked in the midday hours, with Bollinger Bands narrowing and then expanding.
• Large-volume candle at 15:30 ET-1 reversed price higher, signaling internal buyer pressure.

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 3.77 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 3.97 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13. The 24-hour high and low were 4.01 and 3.86, respectively. Total trading volume was 115,665.1 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 450,835 Turkish Lira (assuming average price of 3.9). The session saw multiple attempts to break above 3.95 but faced selling pressure.

Structure & Formations

POLYXTRY formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 3.93–3.95 (09:30–10:15 ET) and a bearish harami pattern around 3.98–3.97 (10:15–10:45 ET), suggesting indecision. Key support at 3.91 held twice but failed to provide a strong rebound. Resistance at 3.99 and 4.01 showed repeated rejections, with multiple wicks indicating profit-taking.

Support and Resistance

Key support levels identified include 3.91, 3.88, and 3.86, with the latter offering deeper cushioning. Resistance remains at 3.97, 3.99, and 4.01, where the price has stalled multiple times. The formation of a double-bottom near 3.86 may offer further technical confirmation if the price tests and rebounds off it.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA (3.92) and 50SMA (3.93) crossed upward in the morning, supporting the bullish breakout. By midday, the price remained above both, but the 50SMA began to flatten, suggesting weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA sits at 3.89 and the 200DMA at 3.87—both offering shallow support but not acting as strong pullback floors.

Crossing Signals

A golden cross formed early in the session, but the price has since diverged from the 50SMA. If the price breaks below 3.90, the 20SMA could flatten, increasing bearish bias for the next 48 hours.

Momentum and RSI

Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought territory twice: first at 74 during the 09:30–10:00 ET candle and later at 76 during the 10:15–10:45 ET candle. Each time, the price failed to sustain the move above 3.99, and RSI dipped back to neutral territory by the end of the session. MACD remained positive but with narrowing histograms, indicating waning momentum in the upside.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted between 04:00–05:30 ET before expanding significantly during the 09:30–10:15 ET breakout. The price closed within the upper band, but with a long lower wick, signaling internal pressure to retest the middle band (3.94) in the near term.

Volume and Turnover

The highest-volume candle was at 10:30 ET with 7280.4 units traded at 4.01, followed by a large bearish reversal at 11:30 ET (7805.1 units). These large-volume moves did not result in significant price movement beyond 0.5% in either direction, suggesting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. Notional turnover spiked during the 14:30–15:00 ET period, but the price drifted lower, indicating volume divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 10:30–11:30 ET move from 4.01 to 3.88, key retracement levels include 3.93 (61.8%) and 3.96 (38.2%). The price bounced off 3.93 and tested 3.96 during the 13:30–14:00 ET period. On the daily swing, the 61.8% retracement at 3.93 is currently acting as a pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI overbought conditions and the large-volume divergence noted above, a backtesting strategy could leverage RSI as a signal generator. A common approach is to go short on RSI > 70 (or 80 for stricter setups), with stops above the recent high of the overbought candle, and targets aligned with the next Fibonacci level or the 50SMA. Given the recent behavior of POLYXTRY, a 5-day holding strategy would likely benefit from a tight stop-loss setup, especially if the price retests 3.90. To proceed with this hypothesis, confirmation of the correct ticker and RSI threshold is required.