Market Overview: Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY)

• Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) closed near a 24-hour low amid thin volume and declining momentum.
• Price action shows consolidation in a range between 4.82–5.11 with no clear directional bias.
• Volume spiked twice during the session, but failed to confirm a breakout.
• RSI is below 30 indicating potential oversold conditions, though divergence with price remains.
• Volatility is moderate, with Bollinger Bands narrowing toward the end of the session.

Polymesh/Turkish Lira (POLYXTRY) opened at 5.08 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET and closed at 4.82 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-07. The 24-hour high was 5.11, low 4.82. Total volume was 78,406.1 and notional turnover amounted to approximately 385,389.5 TRY. Price action reflected a bearish shift after midday, with key support now under pressure.

Structure & Formations

Price remained range-bound between 4.82 and 5.11 for most of the session, with no decisive breakouts. A key support level appears at 4.90–4.95, where the asset found temporary refuge. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 5.0 and 4.95, signaling potential further downside. A doji formed at 4.95, indicating indecision. A bearish trend appears to be taking shape.

Moving Averages & MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, confirming downward momentum. The 50-period line was below the 20-period line for most of the session. MACD remained negative with a bearish crossover, and the histogram continued to shrink, indicating waning downward force. While momentum is bearish, it appears to be running out of steam.

RSI & Bollinger Bands

RSI fell below 30 into oversold territory, with a brief rejection at 4.95. However, a divergence between price and RSI suggests bearish strength may persist. Bollinger Bands were relatively narrow for most of the day, expanding slightly toward the end of the session. Price remains near the lower band, suggesting volatility is building but direction is uncertain.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked twice—first around 18:15 and again at 04:15—coinciding with price declines. These spikes, however, did not trigger a strong rebound, indicating weak conviction among buyers. Turnover remained consistent with volume, though lower in the last two hours. A divergence between price and volume suggests a potential pullback or consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 5.08–4.82 swing, the 38.2% retracement sits at 4.96, and the 61.8% at 4.91. Price has tested the 61.8% level and may test 4.85 next. Daily Fibonacci levels show 4.95 as a key support with 5.08 as a minor resistance. The 5.05–5.11 range appears to be a short-term ceiling.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering long positions after a bullish engulfing pattern forms at key Fibonacci support levels, confirmed by a 50-period MA crossover above the 20-period MA on the 15-minute chart. Short positions are triggered on bearish engulfing patterns at resistance, with confirmation via a bearish MACD crossover. Given the current bearish bias and confirmation by moving averages and MACD, this strategy would have triggered a short signal at 5.0–4.95. If RSI remains in oversold territory without a reversal, a pullback may offer a low-risk long entry around 4.90–4.85.